***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.04.2017.-16.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 14.4 16.0 16.0 -0.1 48.4 48.7 14.7 16.1 17.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 16.6 15.9 15.8 -0.1 48.8 48.8 14.5 16.0 17.4 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 14.5 15.9 16.1 -0.3 46.0 47.2 14.8 16.2 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 7.6 9.2 14.1 0.0 49.4 49.2 7.8 9.2 10.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 15.2 16.5 14.6 -0.3 46.4 47.2 15.4 16.8 18.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 14.3 15.9 12.9 -0.1 49.2 48.6 14.5 16.0 17.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 16.6 15.9 15.8 -0.1 49.2 49.0 14.5 16.0 17.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 2.9 4.3 13.0 -0.3 45.6 46.3 3.3 4.7 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 14.6 15.9 14.8 -0.4 45.0 46.4 14.9 16.3 17.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 14.6 15.9 13.6 -0.4 44.4 45.9 15.0 16.4 17.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 14.9 16.4 14.4 -0.3 46.7 46.9 15.3 16.7 18.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 14.1 15.7 14.1 -0.1 48.0 47.5 14.4 15.8 17.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 15.1 16.8 13.5 -0.1 49.0 48.3 15.4 16.9 18.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 14.1 15.4 14.5 -0.5 43.8 45.9 14.5 16.0 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 15.3 16.9 15.2 0.3 53.8 51.9 15.5 16.7 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 15.3 16.9 14.1 -0.1 48.6 48.0 15.7 17.0 18.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 16.0 15.4 15.6 -0.1 49.1 48.7 14.0 15.4 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 13.9 15.2 13.2 -0.6 43.0 45.2 14.3 15.7 17.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 16.5 15.7 15.9 -0.1 48.2 48.4 14.3 15.8 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 9.0 10.4 10.6 -0.5 43.5 45.1 9.5 11.0 12.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 14.8 16.0 15.6 -0.4 45.3 46.7 15.0 16.4 17.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 16.6 15.9 15.6 -0.1 49.0 48.5 14.4 16.0 17.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 14.3 15.8 16.0 -0.2 47.0 47.8 14.6 16.1 17.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 14.1 15.4 14.5 -0.5 43.4 45.6 14.5 16.0 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 16.9 16.3 14.6 -0.1 48.7 48.9 15.2 16.4 17.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 14.5 16.7 13.7 0.5 56.2 53.0 14.8 16.2 17.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 14.7 16.2 15.4 -0.1 48.7 48.9 14.9 16.3 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 15.2 16.7 14.5 0.0 50.2 49.4 15.5 16.7 17.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 8.5 9.9 12.2 -0.6 42.6 44.9 9.1 10.5 11.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 16.6 15.8 15.9 -0.1 48.4 48.6 14.5 15.9 17.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------