***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.04.2017.-23.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 18.8 19.7 18.1 1.3 67.5 61.2 16.9 18.3 19.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 18.5 19.7 18.0 1.4 68.4 61.4 16.4 18.0 19.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 18.6 19.6 18.3 1.3 66.9 60.6 16.5 18.1 19.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 11.4 12.1 16.0 1.2 65.5 59.7 9.5 10.8 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 18.7 19.4 16.6 1.2 65.0 59.5 16.8 18.2 19.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 15.3 17.6 14.4 0.9 60.6 56.1 15.5 16.8 18.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 18.2 19.2 18.0 1.4 68.4 61.4 16.2 17.7 19.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 6.2 6.8 15.0 1.1 63.3 58.1 4.3 5.7 7.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 18.2 18.9 16.9 1.2 65.1 59.6 16.3 17.7 19.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 18.2 18.8 15.8 1.2 63.8 58.7 16.4 17.7 19.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 18.3 19.0 16.4 1.2 64.2 58.9 16.4 17.8 19.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 17.4 18.0 16.0 1.2 63.9 58.4 15.5 16.9 18.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 18.4 18.9 15.2 1.1 62.8 58.0 16.5 17.9 19.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 18.5 19.4 16.8 1.3 65.5 59.8 16.4 18.0 19.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 18.5 19.2 16.7 1.2 66.5 59.8 16.7 18.0 19.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 18.8 19.4 15.9 1.1 63.7 58.6 16.9 18.3 19.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 17.9 18.9 17.8 1.4 68.1 61.4 15.8 17.3 18.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 17.9 18.5 15.4 1.2 63.6 58.6 15.9 17.4 18.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 18.3 19.5 18.1 1.4 68.1 61.2 16.2 17.8 19.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 12.6 13.1 12.9 1.2 63.1 58.4 10.6 12.0 13.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 18.4 19.2 17.7 1.2 65.3 59.8 16.4 17.9 19.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 18.7 19.8 17.8 1.4 68.0 61.3 16.5 18.1 19.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 18.7 19.8 18.2 1.4 67.6 60.9 16.6 18.1 19.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 18.2 19.0 16.8 1.3 64.9 59.4 16.1 17.7 19.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 18.5 19.3 16.6 1.3 66.3 60.5 16.6 18.0 19.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 17.6 18.6 15.4 1.5 68.7 61.3 15.9 17.2 18.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 18.3 19.3 17.4 1.3 67.0 61.0 16.4 17.8 19.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 18.5 19.0 16.2 1.1 64.7 58.9 16.7 18.0 19.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 12.7 13.3 14.6 1.2 63.4 58.6 10.7 12.2 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 18.4 19.5 18.0 1.4 68.3 61.4 16.2 17.8 19.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------