***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.03.2017.-23.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 17.1 17.7 16.4 0.8 66.7 61.4 15.7 16.7 17.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 17.1 17.8 16.3 0.8 68.8 63.1 15.8 16.8 17.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 17.4 17.8 16.6 0.6 64.1 59.5 16.0 17.0 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 9.9 10.5 13.9 0.7 65.4 60.5 8.4 9.5 10.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 17.6 18.0 14.8 0.6 62.3 57.9 16.2 17.2 18.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 16.4 16.6 12.8 0.4 58.3 54.9 15.0 16.1 17.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 16.9 17.6 16.3 0.9 69.1 63.3 15.7 16.6 17.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 5.2 5.5 13.2 0.5 60.6 56.5 3.8 4.8 5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 17.2 17.5 15.4 0.6 62.3 58.0 15.8 16.8 17.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 17.3 17.5 14.0 0.5 59.8 56.1 15.9 16.9 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 17.4 17.7 14.8 0.5 61.0 56.9 16.0 17.0 18.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 16.5 16.9 14.1 0.5 62.4 57.9 15.0 16.1 17.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 17.5 17.7 13.9 0.4 59.7 55.9 16.1 17.1 18.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 17.3 17.6 15.3 0.6 62.0 58.3 15.9 16.9 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 17.2 17.9 15.4 0.8 68.7 62.9 16.0 16.9 17.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 17.8 18.1 14.3 0.5 61.0 56.8 16.3 17.4 18.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 16.3 17.0 16.1 0.9 69.5 63.8 15.1 16.0 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 16.9 17.0 13.5 0.4 59.4 55.8 15.4 16.4 17.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 17.0 17.6 16.5 0.8 68.1 62.6 15.7 16.6 17.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 11.7 11.9 11.1 0.5 60.9 56.5 10.2 11.3 12.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 17.3 17.7 16.2 0.6 62.3 58.2 16.0 17.0 17.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 17.7 17.8 16.2 0.9 69.7 63.9 15.8 16.7 17.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 17.3 17.9 16.5 0.8 67.0 61.9 16.0 16.9 17.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 17.2 17.3 15.2 0.5 60.3 56.8 15.8 16.8 17.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 17.2 17.7 15.0 0.7 64.9 60.2 16.0 16.9 17.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 16.7 17.6 13.5 0.9 70.3 63.2 15.4 16.4 17.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 17.2 17.8 15.8 0.7 66.0 60.9 15.9 16.9 17.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 17.3 17.8 14.4 0.7 64.5 59.7 16.0 17.0 17.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 11.6 11.8 12.7 0.5 59.6 55.8 10.2 11.2 12.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 17.0 17.7 16.4 0.8 68.1 62.5 15.7 16.6 17.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------