***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.03.2017.-02.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 83 17 0 100 1.8 1.6 3.5 27.1 21.5 18.9 3.0 5.9 9.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 82 18 0 100 1.5 1.3 3.5 30.3 22.7 19.0 2.4 4.9 8.6 30 Becej 27400G00 76 24 0 100 2.6 2.3 4.3 33.1 24.8 21.6 3.4 6.9 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 75 25 0 100 3.5 2.5 4.8 31.4 21.6 19.6 4.7 9.2 15.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 81 19 0 100 2.4 1.9 4.5 32.8 20.9 19.5 3.6 6.8 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 70 30 0 100 3.3 2.8 6.8 44.3 25.6 24.5 4.0 7.6 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 80 20 0 100 1.6 1.4 3.5 30.8 23.3 18.4 2.4 4.9 8.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 70 30 0 100 5.1 4.6 7.7 47.5 26.8 24.5 6.1 11.2 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 85 15 0 100 1.7 1.1 4.3 31.0 18.9 17.9 2.9 6.2 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 78 22 0 100 2.7 2.2 7.0 42.2 23.7 22.0 3.7 7.7 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 75 25 0 100 2.6 2.2 5.5 38.2 24.3 21.5 3.5 7.2 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 72 28 0 100 2.7 2.3 6.2 43.7 26.1 23.2 3.4 7.0 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 3.7 2.7 6.2 39.2 24.1 22.3 4.3 8.6 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 73 27 0 100 3.5 3.1 6.3 39.1 25.2 23.5 4.5 8.7 14.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 72 28 0 100 3.1 2.1 4.2 29.3 25.7 20.9 3.4 8.3 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 77 23 0 100 3.0 2.5 5.4 36.4 22.8 20.6 4.1 7.8 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 78 22 0 100 1.6 1.1 3.6 31.1 22.6 19.4 2.2 4.9 8.9 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 2.4 2.0 8.0 47.3 26.7 24.6 2.7 5.6 9.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 80 20 0 100 1.5 1.2 4.0 32.8 24.2 20.7 2.1 4.9 9.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 68 32 0 100 3.4 3.7 9.6 54.3 31.5 28.0 3.9 7.1 11.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 82 18 0 100 1.9 1.3 3.9 28.3 19.5 18.1 3.1 6.6 11.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 75 25 0 100 2.3 2.4 4.6 37.1 28.0 23.3 3.1 5.8 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 73 27 0 100 3.0 2.7 4.6 35.5 25.6 22.7 3.8 6.8 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 73 27 0 100 2.4 1.9 6.1 40.3 25.2 23.2 3.0 6.5 11.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 86 14 0 100 3.2 2.9 3.7 26.0 19.8 17.9 5.2 8.9 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 3.0 2.7 6.4 43.7 28.2 25.2 3.4 6.9 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 84 16 0 100 1.9 1.5 3.6 26.7 21.2 18.7 3.1 6.5 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 3.3 2.6 4.9 33.0 23.6 20.5 4.1 7.9 13.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 3.9 3.6 8.6 50.6 29.2 26.5 4.4 9.1 15.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 80 20 0 100 2.0 1.7 3.5 29.7 23.0 19.5 2.9 5.8 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------