***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.04.2017.-09.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 2.6 5.5 12.0 77.9 50.8 39.7 2.6 5.2 9.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 2.3 6.2 11.8 86.2 55.5 40.5 2.7 5.2 8.7 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 3.0 7.3 13.3 89.3 56.1 42.4 3.0 5.9 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 10.6 8.7 12.4 76.7 51.7 43.2 4.7 8.3 13.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 10.2 8.8 13.5 85.3 54.6 45.0 3.9 7.5 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 3.2 6.1 14.9 83.6 52.4 45.0 3.1 5.6 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 69 31 0 100 1.8 4.9 11.2 80.9 53.2 39.0 2.0 4.4 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 13.8 12.8 15.6 91.8 57.1 46.9 5.5 10.2 16.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 8.8 8.3 14.5 91.9 57.6 46.3 3.3 6.5 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 10.1 10.1 16.5 95.4 59.0 47.8 4.5 7.9 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 4.0 7.3 14.2 84.2 53.0 44.1 3.7 6.6 10.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 2.9 6.1 13.5 84.2 53.0 44.2 2.5 5.4 9.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 3.4 6.5 14.9 84.1 53.9 46.3 3.1 5.8 9.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 4.2 9.8 19.0 103.0 62.0 47.6 4.1 7.1 10.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 2.2 3.8 10.7 70.8 50.2 40.5 2.1 3.8 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.6 6.4 13.6 81.6 52.6 44.6 3.5 5.9 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 2.4 5.5 11.3 83.2 54.4 40.1 2.7 4.8 7.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 8.8 10.0 19.1 104.7 63.0 51.2 4.1 7.0 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 3.3 7.7 12.5 90.0 57.2 41.6 3.7 6.3 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 9.0 10.0 20.8 104.2 62.5 51.7 3.9 7.0 11.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 3.2 6.7 13.1 85.7 54.7 43.2 2.8 5.7 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 2.9 6.4 12.0 85.1 55.8 41.6 3.1 5.4 8.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 3.0 7.5 14.1 94.7 58.8 42.9 3.4 5.8 9.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 8.4 9.2 17.5 101.9 61.7 48.8 3.9 6.6 10.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 3.1 5.7 13.3 74.1 47.4 39.3 3.4 6.2 10.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 3.0 5.6 14.0 80.5 51.4 43.8 2.8 5.3 9.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 2.6 4.9 12.7 75.2 48.3 38.8 2.8 5.1 8.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 6.6 5.2 11.6 75.0 51.2 42.6 2.8 5.0 8.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 13.1 14.4 19.9 103.8 62.2 50.7 6.5 10.6 15.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 2.2 5.4 12.1 86.4 55.2 40.5 2.6 4.6 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------