***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.04.2017.-16.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 5.3 14.7 17.7 104.7 64.3 49.8 4.8 9.2 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 12.1 13.2 14.6 99.3 61.9 49.5 5.1 9.2 14.9 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 7.0 17.7 17.5 109.4 65.9 50.8 6.9 11.6 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 12.3 23.5 18.2 102.8 62.9 49.0 12.2 18.1 25.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 9.2 18.4 18.8 106.7 64.5 49.6 9.0 13.5 19.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 15.8 18.2 20.2 108.7 64.5 51.7 8.6 13.1 18.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 5.6 12.8 14.8 101.4 62.8 50.4 5.5 9.2 13.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 25.4 28.7 19.7 109.2 64.9 52.5 16.2 22.2 29.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 6.8 15.8 20.0 110.3 65.9 51.0 6.5 10.6 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 17.4 20.3 21.4 110.1 65.4 52.1 9.1 14.3 20.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 15.5 17.6 17.4 106.7 64.3 50.5 8.2 12.7 18.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 15.4 17.9 17.2 107.8 64.6 52.3 8.1 12.8 18.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 16.1 18.9 19.3 105.9 63.8 52.1 7.8 13.2 20.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 18.6 21.8 22.2 109.4 65.3 51.4 9.7 15.2 22.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 6.3 15.3 16.2 100.4 62.8 47.0 5.9 10.5 16.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 15.7 18.7 18.2 108.1 64.9 52.2 8.2 13.1 19.2 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 4.7 11.1 13.6 95.5 60.1 48.5 4.4 8.2 13.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 15.0 18.2 24.1 116.5 67.9 54.0 8.6 12.6 17.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 13.6 14.5 15.0 99.0 61.7 49.1 5.2 10.0 16.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 14.3 17.8 25.1 117.5 68.1 54.9 7.6 11.8 17.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 6.6 16.1 18.9 111.1 66.4 50.2 6.9 10.9 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 5.5 12.9 13.8 92.3 58.8 47.4 5.2 9.8 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 6.8 16.0 16.5 103.6 63.5 49.5 6.4 11.0 17.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 6.9 18.9 21.8 116.4 67.9 52.5 6.5 11.5 17.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 6.7 16.3 19.4 102.0 62.8 48.8 6.5 11.3 17.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 15.5 16.7 17.4 101.6 61.8 49.8 8.9 13.2 18.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 7.2 17.9 18.5 102.7 63.3 49.6 6.7 12.1 19.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 15.9 17.9 17.6 104.8 63.9 49.0 7.5 12.5 19.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 21.7 27.2 24.9 120.0 69.2 55.0 12.0 18.1 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 10.9 12.3 15.7 102.4 63.2 50.3 4.4 8.2 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------