***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.04.2017.-23.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 5.0 8.9 11.5 67.0 45.4 36.6 5.4 10.5 17.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 4.5 8.4 10.6 72.4 49.2 37.8 4.6 8.5 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 5.4 9.4 11.7 68.7 46.4 36.5 5.8 10.7 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 8.5 12.5 12.5 64.2 44.5 36.2 9.0 14.3 21.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 6.3 9.5 12.2 64.0 44.3 37.0 6.2 11.5 18.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 7.3 11.9 17.4 83.0 52.0 42.8 7.2 11.4 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 4.4 8.7 10.6 72.0 49.2 38.7 4.9 9.0 14.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 15.1 20.9 15.5 75.8 48.0 40.7 16.0 21.6 28.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 5.5 8.5 12.7 64.0 43.7 36.9 5.5 10.5 17.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 7.0 11.0 15.4 70.1 45.2 38.8 7.4 12.7 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 7.2 11.0 12.6 68.8 46.5 38.8 7.2 12.2 18.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 8.2 12.3 13.4 74.5 48.5 40.7 8.5 12.6 17.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 8.4 13.9 15.5 77.9 50.0 42.0 8.6 13.9 20.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 5.9 10.2 15.6 70.1 45.7 37.1 6.6 11.8 18.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 6.8 11.2 12.4 69.5 49.3 38.5 6.7 11.3 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 7.7 12.2 13.9 73.7 49.1 40.9 7.7 12.6 18.7 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 4.8 8.7 10.3 72.3 49.4 37.9 4.8 8.9 14.7 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 7.1 11.2 16.5 70.8 45.3 38.8 7.7 12.7 19.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 5.2 9.6 11.2 73.1 49.3 37.5 5.5 9.9 15.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 6.2 10.7 18.5 78.7 48.2 41.4 6.6 11.2 17.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 5.3 8.8 11.8 64.6 44.7 35.5 5.9 10.3 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 4.5 8.5 11.4 76.6 51.3 38.5 4.4 8.2 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 3.9 7.7 12.1 72.8 48.7 36.9 4.4 8.0 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 6.0 10.4 14.4 67.9 45.2 37.1 6.5 12.2 20.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 4.7 8.3 12.7 64.6 44.4 36.1 4.8 10.1 18.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 5.3 10.2 14.7 80.2 51.4 43.1 5.4 9.7 15.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 5.0 8.7 12.5 67.7 46.0 37.7 5.1 10.2 17.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 5.4 9.0 13.0 68.8 47.5 38.2 5.4 9.8 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 8.7 13.7 17.2 74.0 46.3 39.7 8.8 15.2 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 4.1 7.4 10.9 71.1 48.2 37.5 4.1 7.8 13.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------