***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 23.03.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.03.2017.-23.04.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 25.1 25.7 44.7 71.7 28.2 30.0 29.1 42.1 57.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 24.7 26.1 40.6 74.1 31.0 32.5 27.1 37.7 50.1 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 30.4 33.3 46.7 76.8 32.5 33.6 33.6 46.6 61.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 46.2 46.4 47.9 69.8 27.1 30.1 50.7 63.3 77.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 33.4 35.3 49.0 74.0 30.2 32.4 37.6 50.8 65.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 33.9 37.7 59.3 81.5 34.0 33.8 37.2 47.7 59.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 21.4 21.9 40.1 73.4 31.1 32.5 23.0 34.4 48.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 60.9 67.5 58.6 81.6 35.1 36.3 65.6 79.3 93.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 27.8 30.6 51.5 76.0 31.9 33.6 31.5 44.5 59.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 37.9 43.3 60.3 80.4 34.5 35.6 42.2 55.1 69.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 33.5 35.8 49.7 75.7 30.9 32.7 37.4 49.5 63.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 36.9 40.0 50.3 78.4 33.0 34.4 40.0 50.4 61.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 37.8 41.2 55.9 78.0 31.8 32.7 41.9 54.6 68.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 40.7 46.3 63.0 81.8 35.8 36.1 44.4 56.3 69.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 25.8 27.6 43.5 68.6 29.0 30.0 30.9 44.8 61.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 31.2 34.8 51.1 76.1 31.0 32.3 36.2 48.6 62.8 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 23.4 22.3 38.8 72.4 29.9 32.1 24.4 35.6 48.9 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 34.4 40.9 67.6 85.7 39.4 39.2 37.0 48.0 60.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 22.2 24.2 42.7 75.6 31.8 33.2 25.3 38.5 54.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 34.3 43.2 74.0 89.5 42.7 41.9 37.3 47.8 59.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 26.4 28.1 47.7 74.1 30.6 32.4 29.7 42.4 57.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 24.6 25.9 41.8 74.1 31.1 32.6 27.0 38.0 51.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 27.5 31.0 47.4 78.3 33.7 35.0 30.5 40.9 52.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 36.2 41.7 59.6 82.8 37.3 37.1 38.8 51.1 65.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 31.4 31.3 49.0 69.3 26.1 28.9 36.5 49.7 64.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 32.7 35.3 52.5 77.7 30.6 32.8 36.7 47.2 58.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 26.7 26.6 47.3 70.8 27.5 29.6 30.9 45.0 61.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 70 30 0 100 30.9 33.0 47.2 71.4 29.1 30.6 35.5 46.8 59.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 52.0 62.2 70.7 88.1 41.5 40.9 55.6 69.0 83.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 20.5 22.6 42.2 74.7 31.4 32.6 23.5 34.4 47.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------