***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.03.2016.-03.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 5.4 5.8 6.4 1.5 74.6 71.3 3.1 4.2 5.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 5.2 5.5 5.8 1.3 73.8 70.7 3.2 4.1 5.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 7.8 8.2 6.5 1.5 75.5 72.5 5.4 6.5 7.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 1.9 2.4 3.5 1.3 74.4 71.3 -0.7 0.5 1.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 4.4 4.7 4.7 1.3 72.7 70.2 1.8 3.0 4.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 2.4 3.2 1.6 0.9 66.8 65.1 1.2 2.2 3.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 5.2 5.5 5.8 1.3 73.3 70.1 3.3 4.2 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 -1.5 -1.3 2.0 1.3 71.7 70.3 -4.2 -2.9 -1.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 43 57 100 5.1 5.1 4.2 0.8 66.1 64.4 3.0 4.0 5.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 5.3 5.4 2.8 1.1 68.9 67.5 3.0 4.1 5.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 44 56 100 4.9 4.8 3.8 0.9 66.2 64.9 2.6 3.8 4.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 43 57 100 3.5 3.6 3.0 1.1 68.5 67.2 1.2 2.3 3.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 90 10 100 3.4 3.8 2.6 0.6 60.2 59.5 2.1 3.2 4.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 44 56 100 5.6 5.8 4.3 1.2 71.2 68.4 3.6 4.6 5.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 89 11 100 4.5 5.1 4.1 0.7 64.6 62.9 3.2 4.3 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 87 13 100 4.7 5.4 3.2 0.8 65.3 64.1 3.3 4.4 5.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 5.4 5.6 5.7 1.3 73.9 70.6 3.6 4.4 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 2.9 3.1 2.5 1.3 71.4 69.5 0.8 1.8 2.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 5.2 5.5 5.8 1.3 73.7 70.8 3.2 4.1 5.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.5 72.5 71.3 -2.0 -0.8 0.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 5.1 5.4 5.8 1.2 71.7 69.1 2.7 3.9 5.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 4.5 4.9 5.8 1.3 74.6 71.5 2.7 3.6 4.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 4.7 5.0 5.6 1.3 73.2 70.5 2.7 3.7 4.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 5.0 5.2 4.4 1.1 70.5 68.2 2.8 3.9 4.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 5.4 6.0 5.7 1.5 75.3 71.9 3.1 4.2 5.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 89 11 100 3.4 3.7 2.0 0.5 59.3 58.6 2.1 3.2 4.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 6.0 6.5 6.1 1.5 73.8 70.5 3.4 4.6 5.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 2.6 3.6 3.6 1.0 67.8 65.7 1.2 2.3 3.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 2.6 2.8 1.7 1.4 71.9 70.4 -0.1 1.2 2.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 5.7 6.1 6.1 1.4 74.8 71.5 3.5 4.5 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------