***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.04.2016.-10.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 12 88 100 7.8 10.4 9.5 3.9 94.6 87.7 4.6 5.9 7.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 10 90 100 7.3 9.7 8.9 3.7 94.8 88.0 4.3 5.5 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 12 88 100 10.0 12.5 9.3 3.6 93.9 87.9 6.7 8.0 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 12 88 100 4.4 6.9 6.1 3.2 92.1 85.5 0.7 2.1 3.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 13 87 100 6.3 8.4 7.1 3.3 92.1 86.4 3.1 4.4 5.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 9 91 100 5.1 7.0 4.6 3.3 92.9 87.3 2.2 3.3 4.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 12 88 100 7.5 9.9 8.9 3.7 94.4 87.2 4.6 5.8 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 9 91 100 0.6 3.0 4.7 3.3 92.5 88.1 -3.1 -1.6 -0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 14 86 100 7.0 8.9 7.0 3.1 92.6 87.0 4.3 5.3 6.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 11 89 100 6.9 8.7 5.5 3.2 92.2 87.5 4.3 5.3 6.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 12 88 100 6.7 8.2 6.2 2.9 91.3 86.1 4.0 5.1 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 11 89 100 5.4 7.4 5.5 3.1 92.8 87.2 2.5 3.7 4.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 8 92 100 6.2 7.5 5.0 2.8 90.0 84.8 3.5 4.5 5.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 7 93 100 7.7 9.3 6.9 3.1 91.9 87.3 5.0 6.0 7.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 15 85 100 7.5 8.9 6.8 2.6 89.5 83.0 4.9 5.9 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 10 90 100 7.6 9.3 5.6 2.9 91.2 85.6 4.6 5.8 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 10 90 100 7.5 9.5 8.6 3.5 94.1 87.1 4.7 5.8 6.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 12 88 100 4.3 5.7 5.2 3.3 91.5 87.2 2.0 2.9 3.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 10 90 100 7.3 9.7 8.8 3.6 94.8 88.6 4.3 5.4 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 6 94 100 2.3 4.0 3.5 3.7 92.0 88.5 -0.6 0.5 1.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 14 86 100 7.2 9.5 8.5 3.3 93.1 86.9 4.1 5.3 6.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 9 91 100 6.7 8.7 8.4 3.3 93.8 87.6 4.1 5.1 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 8 92 100 6.7 8.9 8.6 3.5 94.6 89.4 3.9 5.0 6.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 11 89 100 7.0 8.5 6.9 3.1 91.5 86.6 4.4 5.4 6.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 12 88 100 7.4 10.0 8.5 3.9 94.4 87.7 4.0 5.3 6.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 12 88 100 5.9 7.6 4.7 3.0 92.1 85.8 3.3 4.3 5.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 13 87 100 8.7 12.1 9.1 3.9 94.3 87.3 4.6 6.2 7.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 14 86 100 5.7 7.5 6.2 2.8 90.2 83.5 2.7 3.9 5.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 9 91 100 4.7 6.7 4.5 3.4 91.5 87.6 1.3 2.6 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 11 89 100 7.9 10.6 9.2 3.7 94.9 88.2 4.8 6.0 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------