***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.03.2016.-24.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 6 94 100 7.0 8.3 8.4 2.0 93.1 87.3 5.1 5.8 6.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 6 94 100 6.6 7.8 7.9 1.8 92.0 86.4 4.7 5.4 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 6 94 100 8.8 10.1 8.4 1.9 92.8 87.5 6.8 7.6 8.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 12 88 100 3.1 4.4 5.5 1.7 91.4 86.4 1.0 1.9 2.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 11 89 100 5.6 6.8 6.2 1.8 91.7 86.9 3.7 4.4 5.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 9 91 100 4.6 5.5 3.7 1.7 89.9 85.6 2.9 3.6 4.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 11 89 100 6.7 7.8 7.9 1.8 91.6 86.0 4.9 5.6 6.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 6 94 100 -0.5 0.6 3.9 1.8 91.2 87.5 -2.7 -1.8 -1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 9 91 100 6.3 7.1 6.2 1.6 90.5 85.7 4.6 5.3 5.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 7 93 100 6.4 7.2 4.7 1.7 90.6 86.5 4.7 5.3 5.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 8 92 100 6.1 6.9 5.4 1.6 89.9 85.8 4.4 5.1 5.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 8 92 100 4.8 5.8 4.7 1.7 90.9 86.9 2.9 3.7 4.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 15 85 100 5.6 6.3 4.2 1.5 86.8 82.9 4.0 4.6 5.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 8 92 100 6.8 7.7 6.2 1.6 91.1 86.0 5.2 5.8 6.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 15 85 100 6.7 7.3 6.3 1.4 87.5 82.7 5.3 5.9 6.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 11 89 100 6.8 7.7 4.9 1.6 89.4 85.2 5.0 5.7 6.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 6 94 100 6.8 7.7 7.7 1.8 91.2 85.8 5.0 5.7 6.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 6 94 100 4.1 4.9 4.3 1.8 91.4 87.2 2.6 3.2 3.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 5 95 100 6.6 7.8 7.9 1.8 92.1 86.8 4.7 5.4 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 5 95 100 1.7 2.6 2.4 2.0 91.5 87.9 -0.1 0.6 1.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 7 93 100 6.5 7.6 7.7 1.8 91.9 86.5 4.5 5.3 6.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 5 95 100 6.0 6.9 7.6 1.7 91.1 85.9 4.3 5.0 5.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 6.2 7.3 7.7 1.8 92.3 87.4 4.4 5.0 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 7 93 100 6.2 7.1 6.1 1.6 91.0 86.3 4.5 5.1 5.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 7 93 100 6.6 7.8 7.3 2.0 93.1 87.6 4.7 5.4 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 13 87 100 5.4 6.1 3.8 1.4 87.1 83.0 3.8 4.4 5.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 7 93 100 7.3 8.8 8.0 2.0 92.9 87.2 5.1 5.9 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 15 85 100 5.0 5.8 5.6 1.5 88.4 83.4 3.4 4.0 4.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 5 95 100 3.7 4.8 3.7 1.8 91.6 87.5 1.5 2.3 3.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 6 94 100 7.0 8.2 8.1 1.9 92.5 86.9 5.1 5.8 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------