***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.03.2016.-03.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 17.9 19.1 17.0 2.4 82.0 77.9 14.1 15.7 17.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 17.8 18.6 16.8 2.1 79.1 75.3 14.6 16.0 17.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 18.1 19.4 17.5 2.5 82.6 78.3 14.7 16.2 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 18 82 100 10.4 11.7 14.0 2.8 83.5 79.9 6.3 8.0 9.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 18.4 20.0 16.0 2.9 84.1 80.4 14.5 16.2 17.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 18 82 100 17.3 18.3 13.8 2.9 81.6 78.6 13.4 15.0 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 17.5 18.2 16.6 2.1 79.0 75.4 14.5 15.8 17.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 6.0 7.1 14.3 3.1 83.1 80.0 2.4 3.9 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 22 78 100 18.1 19.5 16.9 2.8 84.0 80.1 14.3 15.9 17.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 20 80 100 18.2 19.6 15.5 3.2 83.9 80.3 14.3 15.9 17.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 20 80 100 18.3 19.8 16.6 3.1 84.5 80.9 14.4 16.0 17.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 18 82 100 17.6 18.8 15.0 3.0 83.0 79.9 13.5 15.2 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 17 83 100 18.5 19.6 15.8 3.0 83.0 80.0 14.6 16.2 17.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 18.3 19.4 17.0 2.7 81.2 77.1 14.9 16.4 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 17.5 18.5 16.0 2.4 81.4 78.1 14.1 15.5 16.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 19 81 100 18.8 20.1 15.7 3.0 83.8 80.5 14.8 16.5 18.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 16.8 17.5 16.4 2.0 78.6 74.9 13.9 15.2 16.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 21 79 100 17.9 19.1 14.8 3.1 82.9 79.3 14.0 15.6 17.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 17.7 18.6 17.0 2.2 79.7 75.7 14.4 15.9 17.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 19 81 100 12.7 13.6 12.5 3.0 81.0 78.1 8.9 10.5 12.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 18.2 19.6 17.6 2.8 84.0 79.7 14.5 16.1 17.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 17.8 18.5 16.6 2.0 78.5 74.5 14.5 15.9 17.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 18.1 19.2 17.3 2.3 80.8 76.5 14.8 16.3 17.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 18.3 19.5 16.9 2.9 82.6 78.5 14.7 16.2 17.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 17.8 19.0 16.1 2.6 83.0 78.9 14.4 15.8 17.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 17.7 18.6 13.4 2.5 80.5 78.0 14.0 15.5 17.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 18.0 19.1 16.5 2.4 81.8 77.7 14.6 16.1 17.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 17.8 19.1 15.0 2.7 82.6 79.3 13.9 15.6 17.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 19 81 100 12.8 14.0 14.2 3.1 82.7 79.4 8.8 10.4 12.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 17.7 18.6 16.9 2.2 80.3 76.4 14.5 15.9 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------