***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.04.2016.-10.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 18 82 100 19.8 22.8 19.4 4.2 91.4 83.9 15.4 17.2 18.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 12 88 100 19.8 22.5 19.4 4.3 92.1 84.8 15.7 17.3 18.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 15 85 100 20.3 23.4 20.0 4.5 92.4 85.2 15.9 17.7 19.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 20 80 100 13.4 16.0 16.4 3.7 87.8 80.9 8.4 10.5 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 16 84 100 21.1 24.5 18.3 4.5 92.0 85.3 16.3 18.2 20.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 14 86 100 19.9 23.9 16.8 5.1 93.7 87.1 14.9 16.9 18.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 15 85 100 19.5 22.2 19.3 4.3 92.4 84.8 15.6 17.1 18.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 9 91 100 8.3 11.6 17.0 5.1 93.8 87.7 3.7 5.5 7.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 16 84 100 20.5 23.9 19.1 4.6 92.6 85.9 15.9 17.8 19.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 12 88 100 20.9 24.5 18.0 5.1 93.5 87.1 16.0 17.9 19.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 13 87 100 21.0 24.7 18.7 4.8 93.4 86.7 16.0 18.0 19.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 8 92 100 20.2 23.8 17.7 4.9 93.9 87.5 15.1 17.0 18.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 11 89 100 21.0 24.9 18.1 5.0 94.1 87.8 15.9 17.9 19.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 9 91 100 20.3 23.6 19.4 5.1 93.8 87.1 15.9 17.6 19.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 20 80 100 20.2 21.7 17.6 3.1 84.7 77.6 16.2 17.8 19.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 14 86 100 21.3 25.0 18.1 4.8 93.4 86.8 16.4 18.3 20.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 12 88 100 18.7 21.2 19.1 4.4 92.4 85.0 15.0 16.4 17.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 9 91 100 20.3 24.0 17.8 5.4 94.3 88.3 15.5 17.4 19.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 11 89 100 19.8 22.6 19.6 4.4 92.4 85.2 15.6 17.3 18.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 8 92 100 14.8 18.3 15.3 5.5 94.0 88.4 10.1 11.9 13.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 16 84 100 20.5 23.7 19.8 4.6 92.4 85.3 16.0 17.8 19.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 12 88 100 19.5 22.2 19.3 4.4 92.6 85.5 15.7 17.2 18.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 10 90 100 20.1 23.1 19.9 4.6 93.0 86.1 15.9 17.5 19.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 9 91 100 20.4 23.8 19.4 5.2 94.0 87.4 15.7 17.5 19.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 20.1 22.9 18.2 4.1 90.6 83.3 15.9 17.7 19.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 9 91 100 20.1 23.6 16.5 4.7 93.8 87.3 15.2 17.1 18.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 17 83 100 20.2 23.1 18.9 4.2 91.7 84.1 15.9 17.6 19.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 19 81 100 20.9 23.0 17.0 3.6 87.0 80.2 16.3 18.2 20.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 8 92 100 15.0 18.7 17.1 5.6 94.4 88.8 10.3 12.1 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 14 86 100 19.7 22.5 19.4 4.3 92.1 84.7 15.6 17.3 18.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------