***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.04.2016.-17.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 17.9 18.1 17.9 1.5 70.5 65.9 14.6 16.2 17.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 17.9 17.9 17.8 1.4 70.5 65.9 14.6 16.1 17.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 17.8 18.0 18.2 1.5 70.4 65.8 14.7 16.2 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 10.6 10.7 15.7 1.3 68.3 63.7 7.8 9.1 10.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 17.2 18.4 16.5 1.5 69.6 64.9 15.2 16.7 18.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 16.2 17.3 14.8 1.5 68.7 63.9 14.4 15.8 17.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 17.9 17.9 17.8 1.4 70.6 66.2 14.6 16.0 17.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 4.9 6.0 15.0 1.4 69.0 64.2 3.0 4.4 5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 43 57 100 17.6 17.9 16.8 1.5 69.9 65.2 14.7 16.2 17.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 16.6 17.8 15.8 1.5 69.4 64.8 14.7 16.1 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 16.9 18.3 16.4 1.5 70.1 65.1 15.1 16.5 17.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 16.0 17.3 16.0 1.5 70.0 64.8 14.2 15.6 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 43 57 100 18.2 18.4 15.4 1.5 69.9 64.9 15.3 16.7 18.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 17.6 17.7 16.8 1.5 69.5 64.7 14.4 15.9 17.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 17.1 17.8 16.3 1.2 66.5 62.3 15.5 16.7 17.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 17.4 18.6 16.0 1.5 69.7 64.7 15.5 16.9 18.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 17.3 17.3 17.6 1.4 70.9 65.9 14.1 15.5 16.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 16.1 17.3 15.4 1.5 68.4 64.0 14.1 15.6 17.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 17.6 17.7 17.9 1.5 70.6 65.9 14.4 15.9 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 11.2 12.1 12.6 1.2 65.7 61.7 9.2 10.7 12.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 17.8 18.0 17.6 1.5 69.8 65.1 14.8 16.3 17.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 17.8 17.7 17.5 1.3 69.5 64.6 14.5 16.0 17.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 17.8 18.0 18.1 1.5 71.2 66.1 14.5 16.0 17.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 17.5 17.7 16.8 1.6 69.8 65.2 14.4 15.9 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 17.8 18.0 16.4 1.4 69.9 65.1 15.0 16.4 17.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 16.4 17.6 15.0 1.4 70.1 64.7 14.7 16.0 17.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 17.9 18.0 17.3 1.5 70.7 66.1 14.8 16.2 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 17.0 17.8 15.9 1.3 67.1 62.7 15.4 16.6 17.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 10.9 12.0 14.5 1.4 67.8 63.3 8.8 10.3 11.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 17.8 17.8 17.8 1.4 70.4 66.0 14.4 16.0 17.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------