***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.03.2016.-24.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 18 82 100 18.4 19.5 18.0 1.9 87.2 79.7 15.9 16.9 17.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 18.2 19.3 17.9 1.8 86.5 79.3 16.0 16.9 17.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 16 84 100 18.6 19.8 18.4 2.0 88.5 81.1 16.2 17.1 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 16 84 100 11.3 12.2 15.4 1.8 84.9 78.1 8.6 9.7 10.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 15 85 100 19.0 20.2 16.7 2.1 88.2 81.1 16.3 17.4 18.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 16 84 100 17.8 19.0 14.8 2.2 88.0 81.6 15.1 16.2 17.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 17.9 18.9 17.8 1.8 86.5 79.2 15.9 16.7 17.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 14 86 100 6.6 7.9 15.2 2.2 89.1 82.3 3.9 5.0 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 15 85 100 18.5 19.8 17.3 2.1 88.7 81.5 15.9 17.0 17.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 14 86 100 18.6 20.0 16.1 2.3 89.5 82.5 16.0 17.0 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 14 86 100 18.8 20.3 16.8 2.2 89.4 82.3 16.1 17.2 18.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 15 85 100 17.9 19.3 16.0 2.1 88.9 82.0 15.2 16.3 17.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 15 85 100 18.8 20.2 16.0 2.2 89.1 82.4 16.2 17.2 18.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 11 89 100 18.6 20.0 17.4 2.2 90.4 83.0 16.1 17.1 18.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 18.2 18.8 16.5 1.5 80.9 74.7 16.1 17.0 17.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 15 85 100 19.2 20.6 16.3 2.1 88.9 82.0 16.5 17.6 18.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 17.4 18.4 17.6 1.8 86.4 79.1 15.3 16.2 17.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 12 88 100 18.2 19.6 15.7 2.3 90.0 82.9 15.5 16.6 17.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 18.1 19.3 18.1 1.9 87.4 80.1 15.8 16.8 17.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 17 83 100 13.0 14.4 13.2 2.2 88.2 81.5 10.3 11.4 12.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 15 85 100 18.6 19.9 18.1 2.0 88.5 81.3 16.1 17.1 18.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 20 80 100 18.2 19.2 17.7 1.8 86.6 79.2 16.0 16.9 17.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 16 84 100 18.5 19.8 18.3 2.0 89.3 81.8 16.2 17.1 18.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 12 88 100 18.5 19.9 17.4 2.3 90.3 83.1 15.9 16.9 17.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 18 82 100 18.4 19.4 16.7 1.9 86.8 79.7 16.1 17.0 17.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 19 81 100 18.0 19.3 14.8 2.0 87.6 80.9 15.5 16.5 17.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 18 82 100 18.4 19.5 17.4 1.9 87.5 80.0 16.1 17.0 17.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 19 81 100 18.5 19.3 15.9 1.7 83.5 77.0 16.2 17.1 18.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 12 88 100 13.0 14.5 15.0 2.4 89.9 83.1 10.3 11.4 12.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 18.1 19.3 17.9 1.8 87.1 79.7 15.9 16.8 17.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------