***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.03.2016.-03.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 6.7 4.0 7.7 56.8 44.0 38.6 2.5 5.0 8.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 2.7 4.1 7.8 62.4 46.5 39.2 2.5 4.6 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 3.1 4.3 7.5 56.7 41.9 35.2 3.0 5.8 9.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 4.7 5.3 8.2 50.7 36.2 32.4 4.7 8.6 13.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 3.2 3.9 7.7 51.7 37.1 32.6 3.2 6.0 9.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 2.8 3.0 7.7 49.5 33.0 29.8 3.0 5.7 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 4.7 2.9 8.1 64.3 47.3 41.0 1.5 3.3 5.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 73 27 0 100 4.1 3.4 6.9 41.0 24.2 23.6 5.3 9.6 15.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 2.8 3.1 7.5 51.0 36.3 32.8 2.7 5.3 8.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 2.7 2.4 7.8 46.7 29.3 27.3 2.9 6.1 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 2.8 2.7 6.5 42.9 30.5 27.5 3.0 6.1 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 2.6 2.1 5.9 40.7 26.4 25.3 3.0 5.9 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 3.2 3.8 7.5 49.8 35.3 31.1 3.3 6.6 11.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 3.3 4.5 9.2 59.6 42.3 36.4 3.0 5.9 10.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 3.6 3.7 6.3 43.0 35.6 31.0 3.0 7.0 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 3.0 3.4 7.2 48.9 33.5 30.0 3.4 6.1 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 1.9 3.0 7.8 62.7 46.8 40.1 1.7 3.3 5.5 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 2.2 2.1 8.3 49.6 30.5 28.6 2.3 4.5 7.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 1.9 3.0 7.6 60.5 44.8 37.4 1.7 3.8 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 75 25 0 100 2.5 1.9 7.1 39.1 21.8 21.8 3.3 6.0 9.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 2.8 3.0 7.2 50.3 36.3 32.5 2.6 5.2 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 2.7 4.1 7.9 63.9 46.3 39.3 2.6 4.6 7.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 2.6 3.8 7.3 57.0 42.2 35.5 2.7 5.0 8.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 2.7 3.2 8.2 54.8 37.4 32.5 2.6 5.2 8.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 9.3 6.1 8.9 58.6 43.8 37.9 4.3 7.3 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 2.3 1.6 5.9 39.7 23.3 23.0 2.8 5.5 9.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 7.0 4.4 8.6 59.4 45.4 40.2 2.6 5.2 9.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 3.4 3.7 7.1 46.1 33.9 30.3 3.5 6.6 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 3.2 2.8 7.8 46.6 27.8 26.4 3.6 7.6 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 2.6 3.9 7.7 61.0 45.4 38.7 2.2 4.6 7.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------