***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.04.2016.-10.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 3.5 6.6 9.9 75.6 50.1 38.4 3.7 6.6 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 8.8 6.6 8.8 73.0 49.2 40.1 3.9 6.8 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 4.0 7.0 9.6 72.0 47.9 36.8 4.3 7.4 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 6.1 10.4 11.1 79.1 52.9 42.2 5.9 9.6 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 4.7 7.0 9.8 65.1 43.8 35.2 4.7 8.5 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 3.8 5.6 10.4 66.6 42.7 34.5 4.0 7.0 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 2.7 5.3 9.2 76.8 50.0 39.5 2.6 5.3 9.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 6.0 9.3 10.2 67.2 43.9 34.9 6.2 11.2 18.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 3.8 6.5 10.6 70.8 48.8 38.4 3.6 6.7 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 4.9 7.6 10.6 65.9 44.5 35.3 4.9 8.9 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 3.8 5.6 10.3 65.9 41.7 34.6 4.1 7.2 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 2.7 4.6 9.9 69.5 44.0 36.2 2.8 5.9 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 3.9 5.5 10.4 65.5 41.9 34.6 4.0 6.9 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 4.7 6.3 10.2 57.0 38.0 31.4 5.3 8.9 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 2.8 6.8 11.9 97.3 61.9 47.4 2.6 4.8 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 3.8 5.5 10.0 66.9 43.4 35.8 3.9 6.6 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 7.4 5.0 8.2 69.7 46.7 39.4 3.1 5.6 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 4.1 5.5 10.4 58.8 38.9 31.1 4.5 7.7 11.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 4.9 7.6 8.7 71.7 48.3 39.5 4.6 8.0 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 72 28 0 100 2.9 3.8 10.8 56.7 34.8 28.0 3.6 7.0 11.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 3.5 6.4 10.5 74.5 50.2 38.7 3.4 6.4 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 4.3 6.3 8.1 68.7 47.0 40.7 4.1 6.9 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 4.0 6.4 9.2 70.8 46.6 38.1 4.2 7.1 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 4.4 6.4 10.3 62.2 41.5 33.0 5.0 7.9 11.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 4.3 6.9 11.0 70.4 46.5 37.3 4.4 7.6 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 3.1 6.0 11.2 80.1 49.6 39.3 3.2 6.0 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 3.4 5.8 10.6 73.6 47.4 37.4 3.6 6.2 9.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 3.8 7.5 10.8 84.4 55.5 43.2 3.7 6.4 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 69 31 0 100 6.2 7.7 10.3 54.0 34.5 28.3 7.4 11.7 17.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 3.3 5.6 9.0 73.5 49.1 38.7 3.4 5.8 9.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------