***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.04.2016.-24.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 14.0 18.4 13.4 114.6 68.5 57.6 7.1 11.6 17.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 4.5 15.8 12.5 127.5 72.1 56.2 4.0 7.8 13.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 13.8 18.2 12.6 113.4 68.3 57.8 6.0 10.7 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 17.5 25.6 16.3 137.0 74.5 58.5 9.5 14.7 21.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 12.8 19.7 14.9 131.1 73.1 59.4 5.3 9.9 16.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 13.0 19.7 18.9 137.9 75.0 60.6 7.2 11.1 15.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 4.6 16.0 12.6 133.4 73.6 57.5 4.2 7.9 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 28.7 33.4 19.3 151.4 78.5 66.3 13.0 18.9 25.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 12.4 18.7 15.2 127.1 72.0 60.1 5.3 9.7 15.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 21.1 24.2 18.9 140.9 75.7 64.5 7.4 12.3 18.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 13.7 23.0 15.5 143.1 76.2 62.0 6.0 10.7 17.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 18.2 22.1 17.0 152.0 78.4 64.5 7.3 11.3 16.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 15.6 25.3 18.6 143.4 76.2 62.1 7.9 13.0 19.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 20.7 23.1 18.1 132.5 73.4 61.3 7.9 12.9 19.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 12.5 21.3 16.7 148.8 77.5 58.0 5.7 9.9 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 14.0 22.1 16.4 141.4 75.7 61.1 6.9 11.4 17.1 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 5.5 20.6 13.3 146.3 76.8 58.2 5.1 9.2 14.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 20.1 22.1 19.8 134.6 73.9 63.8 6.8 11.6 17.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 12.6 18.3 12.5 124.9 71.3 56.5 5.0 9.4 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 19.2 22.7 22.2 146.2 77.3 67.0 6.6 11.1 16.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 12.0 16.4 13.8 122.9 71.1 58.6 6.3 10.0 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 10.6 19.5 14.6 159.3 79.5 59.6 4.7 8.3 13.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 10.8 15.4 12.8 123.2 70.8 57.5 4.8 8.5 13.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 22.1 22.5 16.2 122.4 70.6 60.2 6.9 12.3 19.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 12.8 19.6 16.0 127.7 72.0 59.2 5.4 10.0 16.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 12.5 19.5 17.0 137.8 74.8 60.8 5.8 10.0 15.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 13.6 18.4 14.5 115.5 68.6 56.9 6.0 10.8 17.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 11.8 18.9 16.5 141.7 75.8 58.0 5.4 9.3 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 25.4 28.4 20.3 138.3 75.0 64.3 9.5 15.4 22.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 5.0 14.8 12.4 118.3 69.6 55.8 4.7 8.4 13.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------