***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.03.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.03.2016.-24.04.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 50.6 44.1 47.8 90.2 49.6 45.7 33.2 44.5 57.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 26.6 39.4 44.0 94.2 53.2 49.0 27.2 37.4 48.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 53.5 44.2 45.1 86.8 47.3 44.3 33.6 46.3 60.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 48.3 64.9 55.4 94.3 51.8 46.4 50.2 63.3 77.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 35.6 46.7 50.4 87.5 46.3 43.5 36.4 49.6 64.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 34.7 44.2 58.0 90.7 47.3 44.1 35.7 45.7 57.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 23.5 38.6 45.8 98.8 56.4 51.4 23.6 34.2 46.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 63.5 74.2 55.4 89.1 44.1 43.2 65.6 78.9 93.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 30.8 40.8 51.1 87.3 46.3 43.7 30.8 43.7 58.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 40.9 50.7 57.0 87.9 44.3 43.1 42.4 55.0 69.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 36.5 44.8 49.6 86.8 43.8 42.4 37.3 49.6 63.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 37.0 46.9 50.5 90.8 46.9 44.6 38.3 49.0 60.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 38.6 53.0 57.8 93.9 50.3 46.4 40.4 52.7 66.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 62.5 54.7 56.9 88.2 47.5 45.1 45.0 56.6 68.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 28.1 50.8 54.2 99.9 57.2 48.6 29.8 43.7 60.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 33.9 47.0 53.2 92.2 49.2 45.6 35.2 47.5 61.4 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 25.8 39.2 44.0 97.7 55.7 50.3 26.2 35.6 46.6 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 34.8 42.4 59.1 86.0 41.7 41.2 36.8 47.9 60.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 25.2 39.2 43.8 92.2 51.7 48.0 24.7 37.6 53.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 36.9 41.6 61.6 85.4 38.5 39.9 38.4 48.8 60.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 29.4 39.4 47.8 87.3 47.2 43.5 29.6 41.5 55.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 44.0 43.1 45.6 99.6 57.2 51.2 28.1 38.2 49.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 45.9 40.0 44.2 88.9 49.0 46.2 30.4 40.4 51.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 38.8 47.1 52.9 85.3 44.0 42.0 39.3 51.8 65.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 57.5 51.1 54.9 91.6 50.3 45.4 38.7 50.8 64.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 35.0 43.9 52.7 90.9 46.7 44.8 36.1 46.0 56.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 53.6 46.3 52.1 91.5 50.2 46.0 33.3 46.3 61.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 33.3 48.6 54.4 96.6 53.7 47.3 34.8 46.0 58.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 51.9 59.9 59.2 84.2 38.8 39.5 55.0 68.9 83.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 23.5 35.3 44.7 92.3 51.6 47.8 23.7 34.3 46.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------