***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.03.2021.-04.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 18.2 19.1 17.1 2.3 78.9 71.9 14.8 16.3 17.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 18.2 19.1 17.3 2.3 80.4 72.5 15.2 16.5 17.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 18.5 19.1 17.3 2.1 77.1 70.2 15.3 16.7 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 10.6 11.3 14.0 2.4 77.4 71.9 6.7 8.4 10.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 18.7 19.2 15.5 2.1 75.6 69.7 15.0 16.6 18.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 17.2 17.1 12.9 1.4 68.5 64.5 13.7 15.3 16.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 17.9 18.6 17.0 2.2 79.7 71.9 15.1 16.3 17.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 6.0 5.8 13.1 1.4 68.5 64.4 2.8 4.2 5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 18.3 18.9 16.6 2.2 77.1 70.5 14.8 16.3 17.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 18.3 18.3 14.4 1.6 70.4 65.7 14.7 16.3 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 18.6 18.7 15.8 1.8 73.2 67.9 14.8 16.4 18.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 17.6 17.5 14.1 1.5 70.0 65.4 13.8 15.5 17.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 18.3 18.1 14.8 1.2 67.5 63.5 14.9 16.5 18.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 18.7 19.5 16.9 2.4 78.8 71.2 15.3 16.8 18.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 17.7 18.2 16.2 2.3 76.9 71.4 14.3 15.8 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 18.8 18.9 14.9 1.6 71.5 66.5 15.2 16.8 18.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 17.2 18.2 17.0 2.5 82.5 74.2 14.6 15.7 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 18.0 18.4 14.0 1.9 73.8 68.0 14.5 16.1 17.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 18.2 19.0 17.4 2.3 79.9 72.0 15.1 16.4 17.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 12.7 12.8 11.4 1.6 71.4 66.9 9.2 10.8 12.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 18.5 19.1 17.3 2.2 77.5 70.8 15.0 16.5 17.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 18.2 19.4 17.3 2.6 83.2 74.6 15.2 16.5 17.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 23 77 100 18.7 19.4 17.4 2.2 79.0 71.1 15.3 16.8 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 18.5 19.1 16.5 2.2 77.4 70.3 15.1 16.6 18.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 25 75 100 18.1 18.7 16.1 2.3 78.4 72.1 14.8 16.2 17.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 17.6 17.4 12.9 1.1 67.0 63.4 14.2 15.8 17.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 18.4 19.1 16.5 2.2 78.6 71.8 15.2 16.6 17.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 18.0 18.4 14.8 2.1 74.4 69.3 14.2 15.9 17.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 12.9 13.4 13.6 2.1 76.0 69.9 9.2 10.8 12.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 18.1 18.9 17.2 2.3 79.4 71.7 15.1 16.4 17.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------