***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.04.2021.-11.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 17.5 18.1 16.5 1.3 63.1 58.4 15.1 16.8 18.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 17.6 17.8 16.0 0.9 59.8 56.1 15.4 17.0 18.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 18.0 18.6 16.7 1.3 63.0 58.2 15.7 17.3 18.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 11.0 12.2 14.2 1.6 66.0 60.4 8.2 10.3 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 18.5 19.6 15.4 1.7 65.9 60.2 16.0 17.9 19.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 19.2 19.4 14.2 2.3 71.3 64.7 14.8 16.8 18.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 17.5 17.6 15.9 0.9 59.4 55.9 15.3 16.8 18.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 6.0 7.1 14.0 1.9 67.1 61.1 3.6 5.3 7.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 18.2 19.0 16.0 1.6 65.1 59.5 15.7 17.5 19.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 18.3 19.4 14.8 1.8 66.1 60.2 15.8 17.6 19.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 18.5 19.5 15.7 1.7 65.8 60.1 15.8 17.7 19.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 17.7 18.7 14.9 1.7 66.5 60.7 15.0 16.9 18.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 18.6 19.8 15.2 1.9 67.5 61.7 15.9 17.8 19.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 17.9 18.4 15.5 1.3 61.9 57.1 15.6 17.2 18.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 18.3 18.9 15.5 1.2 62.8 58.0 16.0 17.7 19.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 18.9 20.1 15.3 1.8 66.9 61.3 16.2 18.1 19.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 16.8 16.9 15.6 0.8 58.9 55.4 14.7 16.1 17.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 17.8 18.8 14.3 1.9 66.4 60.3 15.3 17.1 18.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 15.1 17.8 16.2 1.0 60.4 56.4 15.3 16.9 18.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 12.5 13.8 12.1 2.1 68.6 62.0 10.1 11.8 13.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 18.1 19.0 16.7 1.6 65.1 59.6 15.8 17.5 19.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 15.1 17.6 15.7 0.9 59.0 55.5 15.4 16.9 18.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 15.3 18.1 16.4 1.1 60.8 56.5 15.6 17.2 18.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 17.8 18.5 15.7 1.5 64.1 58.6 15.5 17.1 18.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 18.0 18.7 15.4 1.4 64.4 59.4 15.7 17.4 18.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 19.1 19.2 14.2 2.0 69.4 63.3 15.2 17.1 18.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 17.9 18.5 15.8 1.3 62.9 58.4 15.6 17.3 18.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 18.7 19.7 14.9 1.6 65.4 60.0 16.2 18.0 19.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 12.6 13.6 13.5 1.9 66.5 60.4 10.1 11.9 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 17.6 17.9 16.2 1.0 60.6 56.7 15.4 16.9 18.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------