***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.04.2021.-18.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 14.5 16.6 16.4 0.1 51.4 50.6 14.9 16.5 17.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 14.6 16.4 16.3 0.2 52.1 51.5 14.8 16.3 17.6 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 14.6 16.5 16.7 0.2 51.9 50.9 14.9 16.4 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 7.4 9.3 14.3 0.1 51.2 50.4 7.7 9.2 10.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 14.9 16.9 15.0 0.1 51.5 50.5 15.3 16.8 18.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 16.2 15.8 13.1 0.3 52.9 51.7 14.1 15.6 17.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 14.5 16.3 16.2 0.1 51.3 50.9 14.7 16.2 17.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 2.6 4.6 13.7 0.3 53.0 51.6 2.9 4.3 5.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 14.3 16.4 15.4 0.2 51.9 50.7 14.7 16.2 17.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 14.5 16.4 14.4 0.3 52.8 51.4 14.8 16.2 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 14.7 16.6 14.9 0.1 51.3 50.4 15.0 16.5 17.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 13.9 15.7 14.6 0.2 51.8 50.8 14.1 15.6 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 14.9 16.8 13.8 0.2 52.5 51.4 15.1 16.6 18.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 14.3 16.3 15.4 0.3 52.6 51.3 14.6 16.0 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 15.3 16.7 14.8 -0.1 49.3 48.9 15.5 16.8 17.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 15.0 17.0 14.4 0.2 51.7 50.8 15.3 16.8 18.2 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 14.1 15.9 16.2 0.3 52.9 52.3 14.3 15.7 17.0 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 14.0 16.0 14.2 0.4 53.9 52.3 14.2 15.7 17.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 14.4 16.2 16.5 0.2 52.5 51.6 14.6 16.0 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 11.2 11.1 11.6 0.6 55.4 53.6 9.1 10.6 12.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 14.5 16.6 16.2 0.2 52.2 50.9 14.9 16.4 17.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 16.8 16.4 16.3 0.3 53.8 52.9 14.7 16.1 17.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 14.5 16.4 16.7 0.2 52.4 51.4 14.8 16.2 17.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 14.3 16.3 15.4 0.3 52.8 51.4 14.5 16.0 17.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 14.8 16.7 14.9 0.2 51.7 50.8 15.1 16.5 17.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 16.4 16.1 13.6 0.3 52.9 51.6 14.5 15.8 17.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 14.6 16.5 15.7 0.1 51.5 50.7 14.9 16.4 17.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 15.0 16.6 14.4 0.0 50.4 49.8 15.3 16.6 17.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 11.0 10.7 13.3 0.5 54.5 52.8 8.8 10.3 11.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 14.4 16.2 16.3 0.1 51.4 50.8 14.7 16.1 17.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------