***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.04.2021.-25.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 19.3 19.6 18.1 0.9 61.0 58.1 17.2 18.7 20.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 19.3 19.7 17.9 1.0 61.8 59.2 17.2 18.7 20.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 19.3 19.8 18.4 1.0 61.7 58.7 17.2 18.7 20.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 11.8 12.1 15.8 0.8 59.4 56.5 9.8 11.3 12.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 19.3 19.6 16.5 0.8 59.7 56.8 17.3 18.8 20.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 17.9 18.1 14.4 0.8 59.0 56.3 16.0 17.4 18.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 18.9 19.3 17.8 0.9 61.6 59.0 16.8 18.3 19.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 7.1 7.6 15.2 1.1 61.6 58.4 5.1 6.6 8.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 18.8 19.3 16.9 0.9 60.8 57.7 16.7 18.3 19.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 18.9 19.4 15.9 1.1 61.8 58.5 16.9 18.4 19.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 19.1 19.3 16.3 0.8 59.0 56.3 17.0 18.5 19.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 18.2 18.4 16.0 0.8 59.2 56.5 16.1 17.6 19.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 19.1 19.3 15.2 0.8 58.7 56.1 17.0 18.6 20.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 19.5 20.1 17.0 1.2 63.7 59.9 17.3 18.9 20.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 18.8 19.0 16.5 0.7 58.1 55.5 17.1 18.4 19.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 19.6 19.7 15.8 0.8 58.5 56.0 17.4 19.0 20.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 19.5 19.0 17.7 1.0 62.5 59.9 16.5 18.0 19.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 18.5 19.3 15.7 1.3 63.8 60.0 16.5 18.0 19.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 19.0 19.6 18.1 1.0 62.1 59.3 16.9 18.5 19.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 13.6 14.5 13.2 1.5 65.6 61.3 11.4 13.0 14.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 19.1 19.6 17.8 1.0 61.4 58.3 17.0 18.5 20.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 20.5 20.1 17.8 1.1 63.1 60.2 17.3 18.9 20.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 19.5 20.0 18.3 1.0 62.3 59.3 17.4 18.9 20.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 19.0 19.6 16.9 1.2 63.0 59.4 16.8 18.4 19.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 19.0 19.5 16.5 0.9 60.8 57.7 17.0 18.6 20.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 18.5 18.7 15.0 0.8 58.6 56.0 16.5 18.0 19.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 18.9 19.3 17.4 0.9 61.1 58.1 16.9 18.4 19.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 19.0 19.2 16.0 0.7 58.4 55.7 17.2 18.6 19.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 13.6 14.4 14.8 1.4 64.7 60.6 11.4 13.1 14.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 19.0 19.5 17.9 0.9 61.4 58.7 16.9 18.4 19.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------