***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.03.2021.-25.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 18.2 18.3 17.0 1.2 70.1 64.5 16.1 17.1 18.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 17.4 18.2 16.9 1.1 69.4 63.9 16.2 17.1 18.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 18.4 18.4 17.3 1.2 69.9 64.1 16.3 17.3 18.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 11.0 11.2 14.6 1.2 70.9 65.5 8.7 9.8 10.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 18.7 18.8 15.6 1.2 70.2 64.5 16.4 17.5 18.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 17.4 17.6 13.6 1.2 70.3 64.5 15.2 16.3 17.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 17.2 17.8 16.7 1.0 68.5 63.2 16.0 16.9 17.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 6.3 6.3 14.0 1.2 69.0 63.3 4.1 5.1 6.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 18.3 18.3 16.2 1.2 70.8 64.8 16.0 17.1 18.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 18.3 18.4 14.9 1.2 69.6 63.7 16.1 17.1 18.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 18.5 18.5 15.7 1.1 68.9 63.3 16.2 17.3 18.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 16.8 17.6 14.9 1.1 67.8 62.2 15.3 16.4 17.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 17.7 18.5 14.7 1.0 67.5 62.0 16.3 17.4 18.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 18.4 18.5 16.2 1.3 70.8 64.6 16.2 17.2 18.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 42 58 100 18.1 18.1 15.8 1.0 67.6 63.1 16.3 17.2 18.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 18.9 18.9 15.1 1.1 68.5 63.1 16.6 17.7 18.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 17.3 17.4 16.6 1.2 70.4 64.7 15.5 16.4 17.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 17.9 18.1 14.5 1.4 71.7 65.2 15.7 16.7 17.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 17.9 18.0 17.1 1.1 69.6 64.0 16.0 16.9 17.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 12.8 13.1 12.1 1.4 72.2 65.9 10.4 11.6 12.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 18.4 18.5 17.0 1.2 71.3 65.3 16.2 17.2 18.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 18.1 18.2 16.8 1.2 71.2 65.3 16.2 17.1 17.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 18.3 18.4 17.2 1.1 69.5 63.8 16.3 17.3 18.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 18.2 18.3 16.1 1.3 71.3 65.0 16.0 17.0 18.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 18.2 18.3 15.7 1.2 70.9 65.4 16.2 17.2 18.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 17.0 17.8 13.9 1.0 68.0 62.4 15.6 16.7 17.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 18.2 18.3 16.3 1.1 70.0 64.4 16.2 17.1 18.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 18.3 18.4 15.0 1.1 68.7 63.7 16.3 17.3 18.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 12.8 13.0 13.8 1.4 72.6 66.0 10.4 11.5 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 17.3 18.0 16.9 1.1 69.0 63.5 16.0 17.0 17.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------