***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.03.2021.-04.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 2.1 4.2 7.4 64.1 50.3 37.1 2.3 4.2 6.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 2.0 3.9 6.1 57.3 46.2 34.2 2.2 4.5 7.9 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 2.5 5.2 6.8 60.4 48.5 34.5 2.7 5.5 9.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 4.4 6.6 6.9 51.0 42.5 32.1 4.6 8.5 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 2.4 4.1 6.4 53.8 43.9 32.1 2.5 5.1 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 3.3 4.1 5.6 45.8 36.4 30.2 3.7 6.5 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 1.3 2.6 6.2 56.9 45.8 34.0 1.5 3.1 5.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 4.5 6.5 7.2 51.6 40.7 32.0 4.8 9.1 15.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 1.9 3.7 7.0 59.3 47.3 34.5 2.0 4.1 7.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 2.7 4.5 7.1 54.1 42.2 31.9 3.1 5.8 10.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 2.6 4.2 6.1 51.4 42.5 30.9 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 2.9 4.5 6.2 50.6 41.1 31.9 3.3 6.3 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 73 27 0 100 2.7 4.0 5.4 44.1 36.5 27.5 3.5 6.5 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 2.4 5.4 9.2 68.6 51.5 36.1 2.4 5.1 9.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 3.1 5.9 5.8 50.3 44.4 31.2 3.4 7.4 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 2.8 4.4 5.5 47.5 40.2 29.9 3.3 6.0 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 1.7 3.0 6.0 55.7 45.6 34.1 1.8 3.6 6.2 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 2.2 3.8 8.2 60.9 45.7 34.1 2.4 4.5 7.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 2.0 3.8 6.3 58.4 46.8 34.5 2.2 4.2 6.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 3.5 5.1 7.9 53.3 41.1 31.6 3.8 6.8 10.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 2.1 4.2 7.2 60.6 48.3 34.8 2.2 4.5 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 1.9 3.4 6.2 55.2 45.0 33.6 2.0 4.0 6.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 2.0 4.2 6.6 61.3 48.7 35.2 2.3 4.5 7.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 2.7 5.3 8.0 65.7 50.3 36.3 2.8 5.3 8.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 3.1 5.5 7.3 57.4 46.9 33.8 3.5 6.0 9.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 2.7 2.7 4.8 37.6 31.7 26.0 2.9 5.9 10.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 2.0 4.2 7.5 62.1 49.4 36.2 2.0 4.3 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 3.1 4.8 5.8 46.7 40.8 30.9 3.5 6.6 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 3.9 7.0 8.4 60.1 45.2 33.3 4.2 8.2 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 2.0 4.1 6.5 59.5 47.6 34.6 2.3 4.4 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------