***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.04.2021.-18.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 15.7 15.4 12.6 87.9 58.3 46.5 7.2 12.3 18.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 7.0 13.8 12.0 95.0 60.6 47.1 7.1 10.9 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 18.6 18.6 12.3 89.5 58.8 47.7 10.0 15.3 21.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 12.4 23.3 14.5 91.6 59.1 47.2 13.2 19.4 26.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 18.6 19.2 14.2 94.4 60.4 49.5 9.5 15.0 21.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 16.4 17.0 16.1 96.6 60.2 49.7 9.1 13.6 19.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 5.7 14.6 12.0 94.7 60.5 46.8 6.1 10.7 17.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 17.0 30.8 15.8 100.8 62.3 51.0 17.2 24.5 33.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 16.1 17.3 14.5 95.2 61.0 50.9 7.3 12.7 19.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 17.9 19.8 17.0 102.2 63.2 52.6 9.2 14.5 21.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 16.6 18.0 14.0 98.0 61.8 50.4 7.2 12.8 20.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 8.4 17.5 13.4 97.0 61.0 48.9 8.3 13.3 19.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 18.7 19.3 15.1 95.5 60.0 49.2 9.3 15.1 22.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 12.2 22.6 17.5 99.4 62.1 49.6 12.4 17.9 24.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 7.9 17.5 13.6 90.5 59.8 47.3 8.0 13.6 20.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 8.8 19.4 14.3 94.9 60.3 49.4 8.4 14.5 22.6 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 5.8 12.4 11.6 93.0 59.6 46.9 5.8 9.7 14.6 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 8.8 18.4 17.5 101.7 62.5 52.9 8.5 13.6 19.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 7.3 14.9 12.2 95.3 61.0 48.0 7.3 11.5 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 8.1 15.1 17.2 95.6 59.0 49.8 8.1 12.4 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 16.4 16.7 13.1 90.5 59.2 49.1 8.8 13.6 19.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 5.8 12.9 12.2 92.5 59.8 46.8 5.8 10.0 15.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 8.5 15.9 12.7 95.4 61.0 48.1 8.7 12.7 17.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 9.9 20.4 15.5 96.6 60.9 50.7 10.1 15.8 22.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 9.9 19.8 14.6 90.4 59.0 47.7 9.7 15.8 23.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 9.2 16.4 13.4 91.3 58.6 47.7 9.1 13.6 19.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 8.5 17.6 13.7 89.4 58.7 47.2 8.1 13.9 21.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 8.4 17.8 13.9 89.2 58.6 47.3 8.7 14.2 21.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 12.8 24.3 17.0 98.3 60.9 51.7 13.0 19.3 26.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 6.0 12.8 12.0 91.8 59.5 46.4 6.1 10.1 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------