***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.03.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.03.2021.-25.04.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 32.8 43.7 51.4 90.1 48.3 44.9 33.6 44.7 57.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 27.0 35.3 46.1 88.2 47.1 43.4 27.0 37.1 48.9 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 35.7 44.5 48.5 86.4 45.0 42.6 36.4 48.2 61.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 70.6 60.8 55.1 83.4 43.5 43.0 53.9 65.3 77.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 56.0 44.1 51.7 84.2 43.6 43.0 36.1 49.6 64.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 52.1 41.5 56.1 84.1 41.4 41.6 36.6 46.7 57.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 23.9 33.0 45.5 87.9 47.2 43.6 24.3 34.9 47.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 85.5 72.1 54.2 83.1 40.1 40.8 67.1 79.5 92.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 51.3 41.9 52.6 85.0 44.2 43.3 34.5 45.7 58.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 61.6 50.2 57.5 85.1 42.8 42.6 43.5 55.6 68.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 55.2 44.0 49.2 82.9 41.9 42.0 38.1 49.8 62.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 54.5 44.3 47.8 82.7 41.2 41.6 39.4 49.8 61.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 58.6 45.4 52.4 81.7 39.6 40.4 41.1 52.7 65.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 61.9 53.1 62.9 88.3 46.3 44.1 43.7 55.7 68.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 51.0 40.4 51.1 83.3 45.5 43.8 30.4 44.2 60.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 54.3 43.8 50.5 82.4 41.9 41.8 38.1 49.4 61.7 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 25.7 35.0 44.3 87.5 47.4 44.0 26.9 36.6 47.5 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 38.6 44.4 59.8 85.0 42.0 42.0 39.3 49.3 60.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 27.8 37.3 46.8 88.0 46.7 43.1 27.5 39.8 54.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 37.5 40.7 59.7 80.9 36.8 38.2 38.4 48.8 60.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 48.3 39.6 51.0 86.1 45.3 43.8 32.1 42.6 54.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 25.4 35.1 47.4 88.6 47.9 44.6 25.8 36.4 49.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 28.9 37.2 48.1 87.3 46.1 42.9 28.9 39.6 51.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 39.6 47.3 56.0 85.0 43.3 42.3 40.3 52.2 64.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 56.1 48.6 57.6 89.2 47.7 45.2 39.1 50.3 62.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 36.1 38.8 48.2 78.4 36.5 38.2 36.7 46.5 57.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 33.3 45.7 55.5 91.3 49.3 45.7 33.6 46.4 61.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 53.2 44.1 51.5 80.5 41.9 41.6 39.1 48.8 59.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 75.7 60.5 59.4 83.3 39.8 40.4 55.4 68.7 82.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 26.8 35.1 47.4 88.6 47.1 43.0 27.5 36.8 47.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------