***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.03.2015.-05.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 88 12 100 5.1 5.0 4.3 0.1 51.2 51.1 4.0 4.9 5.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 5.2 5.6 4.7 0.7 62.0 61.0 4.1 5.0 5.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 89 11 100 7.5 7.6 4.4 0.3 55.2 54.7 6.3 7.3 8.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 90 10 100 1.5 1.4 1.8 0.1 51.6 51.1 0.2 1.3 2.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 87 13 100 3.9 3.5 2.1 -0.1 48.5 48.3 2.5 3.6 4.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 2.9 2.4 -0.2 -0.3 45.6 45.5 1.6 2.6 3.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 5.2 5.5 4.6 0.6 60.3 59.5 4.1 5.0 5.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -1.8 -2.9 -0.3 -0.6 40.2 40.8 -3.4 -2.3 -1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 4.9 4.6 2.7 0.0 49.6 49.4 3.7 4.6 5.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 5.1 4.4 0.7 -0.4 44.1 44.5 3.7 4.7 5.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 4.6 4.1 1.5 -0.2 46.0 45.9 3.2 4.3 5.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 3.3 2.4 0.5 -0.5 42.0 42.4 1.8 2.9 3.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 3.9 3.4 0.6 -0.3 45.3 45.3 2.6 3.7 4.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 88 12 100 5.5 5.6 3.0 0.3 55.6 54.9 4.3 5.3 6.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 91 9 100 4.8 5.5 3.7 0.7 63.2 61.6 3.6 4.7 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 5.3 4.7 1.1 -0.3 45.1 45.0 3.9 5.0 6.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 5.3 5.8 4.6 0.8 64.0 62.8 4.3 5.1 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 2.5 1.8 -0.2 -0.5 42.6 43.5 1.3 2.2 3.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 87 13 100 5.0 5.4 4.6 0.6 60.7 59.8 3.9 4.8 5.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 0.3 -1.1 -2.6 -1.0 35.0 36.7 -1.3 -0.2 0.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 4.8 4.6 3.9 0.1 52.3 52.0 3.4 4.5 5.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 46 54 100 5.0 4.9 4.7 0.8 64.8 63.3 3.4 4.2 5.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 88 12 100 4.5 4.7 4.2 0.4 57.5 56.7 3.4 4.3 5.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 4.8 4.6 2.5 0.1 51.5 51.3 3.5 4.5 5.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 87 13 100 5.0 4.8 3.0 0.0 49.2 49.0 3.8 4.8 5.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 4.0 3.3 0.2 -0.3 44.2 44.3 2.6 3.7 4.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 89 11 100 5.7 5.5 3.5 0.0 50.2 50.1 4.2 5.5 6.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 88 12 100 2.9 3.2 2.6 0.4 57.5 56.4 1.6 2.7 3.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 2.4 1.1 -1.1 -0.9 37.3 38.7 0.9 2.0 3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 88 12 100 5.5 5.8 4.7 0.5 58.8 58.0 4.3 5.3 6.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------