***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.04.2015.-12.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 6.3 6.0 5.4 0.2 52.3 51.6 4.8 5.9 7.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 5.8 5.6 5.2 0.1 51.8 51.3 4.4 5.5 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 8.2 7.9 5.1 0.1 51.7 51.2 6.6 7.8 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 2.5 1.4 2.5 -0.4 44.4 44.8 0.4 1.9 3.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 5.0 4.4 2.7 -0.2 46.9 47.2 3.5 4.6 5.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 4.1 3.4 0.9 -0.3 45.4 45.9 2.6 3.7 4.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 6.1 6.0 5.3 0.2 52.8 52.0 4.7 5.8 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -1.1 -1.9 1.1 -0.3 45.9 46.8 -3.0 -1.6 -0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 5.8 5.4 3.3 0.0 49.7 49.8 4.4 5.4 6.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 5.8 5.3 1.8 -0.2 47.4 48.0 4.5 5.5 6.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 5.7 5.0 2.2 -0.3 45.7 46.3 4.3 5.3 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 4.4 3.7 2.0 -0.2 46.5 47.1 2.8 3.9 5.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 5.3 4.6 1.5 -0.3 46.0 46.6 3.8 4.9 5.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 6.4 6.0 3.4 -0.1 49.2 49.4 5.1 6.1 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 5.1 5.9 3.2 -0.3 44.5 44.7 5.3 6.2 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 6.4 5.7 1.9 -0.3 45.2 45.8 4.8 6.0 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 6.1 5.9 5.1 0.1 51.3 50.9 4.8 5.8 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 3.7 3.2 1.1 -0.2 47.0 47.9 2.5 3.4 4.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 5.9 5.7 5.1 0.1 51.3 50.9 4.5 5.6 6.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 1.2 0.4 -0.8 -0.5 43.9 45.5 -0.3 0.8 1.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 5.9 5.5 4.4 0.1 50.8 50.5 4.3 5.5 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 5.5 5.3 5.1 0.1 51.0 50.6 4.3 5.2 6.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 5.6 5.3 4.8 0.0 50.7 50.3 4.2 5.2 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 5.8 5.4 3.1 -0.1 49.3 49.5 4.5 5.4 6.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 6.0 5.4 3.5 -0.2 47.6 47.6 4.4 5.6 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 5.1 4.4 1.7 -0.3 46.1 46.6 3.6 4.7 5.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 6.6 6.2 4.6 0.0 50.6 50.1 4.7 6.1 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 4.7 3.9 2.8 -0.4 44.3 44.7 3.1 4.2 5.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 3.0 2.2 0.5 -0.3 45.8 47.3 1.3 2.5 3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 6.3 6.1 5.3 0.2 52.2 51.6 4.8 5.9 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------