***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.04.2015.-19.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 6.6 5.7 6.2 -0.4 43.5 44.2 5.0 6.2 7.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 5.9 5.3 6.3 -0.2 46.1 46.6 4.4 5.6 6.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 7.9 7.1 6.1 -0.3 44.4 45.0 6.3 7.5 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 2.3 1.3 3.9 -0.4 43.7 44.1 0.5 1.8 2.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 5.4 4.4 3.8 -0.4 42.7 43.6 3.7 4.9 6.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 4.5 3.8 2.3 -0.2 46.9 47.2 3.0 4.0 5.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 6.2 5.6 6.4 -0.2 46.7 47.0 4.7 5.8 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -1.5 -2.7 2.2 -0.6 40.3 42.0 -3.3 -2.0 -0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 4.4 5.2 4.3 -0.4 43.2 44.0 4.5 5.6 6.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 6.0 5.0 2.8 -0.5 41.4 42.8 4.4 5.5 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 5.9 4.9 3.4 -0.5 42.0 43.2 4.4 5.4 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 4.5 3.6 3.0 -0.5 41.2 42.7 3.0 4.1 5.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 5.4 4.6 2.6 -0.4 43.6 44.5 3.9 5.0 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 6.2 5.3 4.3 -0.6 40.3 42.1 4.9 5.8 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 6.7 6.1 4.5 -0.2 46.2 46.0 5.4 6.3 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 6.2 5.4 3.1 -0.4 43.4 44.3 4.7 5.8 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 6.3 5.8 6.2 -0.2 47.1 47.4 4.9 6.0 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 4.1 3.1 2.2 -0.6 40.0 41.9 2.7 3.7 4.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 6.0 5.4 6.2 -0.3 45.4 46.1 4.5 5.7 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 -0.3 0.2 0.4 -0.8 37.8 40.3 -0.1 1.0 2.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 4.3 5.2 5.4 -0.4 43.3 44.0 4.5 5.6 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 5.6 5.1 6.1 -0.2 46.4 46.8 4.3 5.3 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 5.7 4.9 5.8 -0.4 43.9 44.9 4.1 5.3 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 5.8 4.9 4.1 -0.5 42.0 43.4 4.3 5.4 6.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 6.2 5.2 4.6 -0.5 43.0 43.9 4.5 5.7 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 3.4 4.3 2.9 -0.5 42.5 43.7 3.6 4.7 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 6.6 5.6 5.5 -0.4 43.8 44.5 4.8 6.1 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 5.2 4.5 4.2 -0.3 45.3 45.3 3.7 4.8 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 2.5 1.3 1.5 -0.7 38.4 40.9 0.9 2.1 3.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 6.3 5.6 6.4 -0.3 45.4 45.9 4.8 5.9 6.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------