***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.03.2015.-26.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 6.3 6.0 6.0 -0.1 46.9 47.3 5.4 6.1 6.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 6.0 5.8 6.1 0.1 51.9 51.3 5.0 5.7 6.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 8.1 7.8 5.9 -0.1 48.5 48.5 7.1 7.9 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 2.5 1.9 3.5 -0.2 43.5 44.2 1.4 2.2 3.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 4.9 4.3 3.6 -0.3 42.8 43.7 3.9 4.7 5.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 4.1 3.5 1.8 -0.3 43.5 44.1 3.1 3.8 4.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 6.1 6.0 6.1 0.1 52.2 51.7 5.2 5.9 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 -2.6 -2.1 1.8 -0.5 38.3 39.7 -2.4 -1.6 -0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 5.7 5.3 4.1 -0.2 44.8 45.4 4.8 5.5 6.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 5.8 5.2 2.5 -0.4 40.7 41.7 4.9 5.5 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 4.5 4.9 3.1 -0.3 40.9 42.1 4.6 5.3 5.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 3.1 3.5 2.6 -0.4 39.2 40.6 3.2 3.9 4.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 5.1 4.5 2.3 -0.3 41.3 42.4 4.2 4.8 5.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 6.3 5.9 4.3 -0.2 45.3 45.7 5.4 6.0 6.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 6.3 6.1 4.4 0.0 49.9 49.5 5.5 6.1 6.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 6.2 5.5 2.8 -0.3 41.1 42.2 5.2 5.9 6.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 6.2 6.1 6.0 0.1 52.6 52.0 5.4 6.0 6.6 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 2.8 3.1 1.8 -0.5 39.0 40.1 2.9 3.4 4.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 6.0 5.8 6.0 0.0 50.8 50.4 5.0 5.7 6.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 -0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.7 34.6 36.6 0.2 0.8 1.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 5.8 5.3 5.2 -0.1 46.6 46.9 4.8 5.5 6.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 5.5 5.3 6.0 0.1 52.1 51.5 4.6 5.3 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 5.6 5.3 5.6 0.0 48.7 48.6 4.7 5.4 6.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 5.6 5.2 3.9 -0.2 44.5 44.9 4.8 5.4 6.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 5.9 5.4 4.4 -0.3 43.5 44.4 4.9 5.7 6.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 5.0 4.3 2.3 -0.4 40.4 41.6 4.0 4.7 5.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 6.5 6.0 5.2 -0.2 45.7 46.3 5.3 6.2 7.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 4.5 4.1 3.9 -0.1 46.9 47.1 3.6 4.2 4.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 1.5 1.9 1.1 -0.6 35.7 37.3 1.8 2.6 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 6.3 6.1 6.1 0.0 50.6 50.2 5.3 6.1 6.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------