***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.03.2015.-05.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 17.6 15.9 13.1 -0.9 37.6 39.2 15.5 16.9 18.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 17.4 16.1 13.1 -0.8 38.3 40.0 15.7 17.0 18.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 17.6 16.7 13.7 -0.5 43.7 44.6 15.8 17.2 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 9.6 9.0 11.5 -0.1 48.8 48.6 7.4 9.1 10.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 17.8 17.2 12.5 -0.1 49.0 48.9 15.7 17.3 18.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 16.3 15.5 10.0 -0.3 46.4 46.5 14.2 15.8 17.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 15.4 15.7 12.7 -1.1 34.2 36.3 15.6 16.8 17.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 5.1 4.8 10.9 0.1 51.4 50.7 3.2 4.6 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 17.4 16.9 13.5 0.0 49.9 49.8 15.4 16.9 18.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 17.4 16.9 11.9 0.0 50.1 49.8 15.3 16.9 18.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 17.4 17.1 12.4 0.1 51.5 51.0 15.4 17.0 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 16.5 16.3 11.7 0.2 52.7 51.9 14.4 16.0 17.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 17.4 16.8 11.3 -0.2 47.4 47.3 15.4 17.0 18.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 17.5 17.5 13.7 0.4 54.2 53.5 15.7 17.1 18.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 16.8 16.3 13.0 0.0 49.9 49.5 14.9 16.3 17.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 17.8 17.2 11.8 -0.1 48.5 48.2 15.7 17.4 18.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 16.6 15.2 12.8 -0.9 36.4 38.3 15.0 16.1 17.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 17.1 16.4 11.0 -0.2 47.9 47.9 15.1 16.6 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 17.2 16.2 13.5 -0.6 42.2 43.4 15.5 16.8 18.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 11.8 10.6 8.2 -0.6 43.0 43.5 9.6 11.2 12.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 17.6 16.8 13.8 -0.3 46.5 46.9 15.6 17.1 18.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 17.2 16.4 13.5 -0.4 43.7 44.7 15.6 16.8 18.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 17.6 16.9 14.0 -0.2 47.4 47.8 15.7 17.2 18.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 17.5 17.1 13.0 0.0 50.2 50.1 15.6 17.1 18.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 17.4 16.0 12.0 -0.8 39.4 40.6 15.5 16.8 18.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 16.6 16.1 10.5 -0.1 49.3 49.0 14.5 16.1 17.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 15.5 15.9 12.3 -1.2 34.2 36.1 15.8 17.1 18.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 16.9 16.6 12.3 0.1 51.7 51.0 14.8 16.4 18.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 11.8 10.9 10.1 -0.3 46.5 46.6 9.7 11.3 12.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 17.4 16.0 13.3 -0.8 38.4 40.1 15.6 16.9 18.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------