***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.04.2015.-26.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 17.4 18.5 18.6 -0.7 41.0 44.7 17.8 19.2 20.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 17.3 18.5 18.4 -0.6 41.3 44.6 17.8 19.3 20.7 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 17.3 18.4 18.6 -0.8 39.9 44.1 17.8 19.3 20.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 9.8 11.1 16.9 -0.6 41.3 44.7 10.4 11.9 13.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 17.4 18.7 17.1 -0.7 40.2 44.2 18.0 19.5 20.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 15.9 17.3 15.3 -0.6 42.3 45.1 16.6 17.9 19.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 17.0 18.2 18.4 -0.6 42.2 45.1 17.4 18.8 20.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 5.0 6.2 15.6 -0.8 39.0 43.8 5.7 7.2 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 16.9 18.0 17.5 -0.8 39.5 44.0 17.4 18.9 20.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 17.0 18.2 16.4 -0.8 39.2 43.9 17.6 19.1 20.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 17.0 18.3 16.7 -0.7 40.2 44.0 17.7 19.2 20.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 16.1 17.4 16.4 -0.8 39.4 43.7 16.8 18.3 19.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 17.0 18.3 15.9 -0.7 40.1 43.8 17.7 19.2 20.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 17.4 18.5 17.4 -0.8 39.6 44.2 17.9 19.4 20.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 17.1 18.4 17.2 -0.5 42.4 45.4 17.6 18.9 20.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 17.4 18.9 16.4 -0.7 40.8 44.2 18.2 19.7 21.1 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 16.6 17.9 18.3 -0.6 42.5 45.2 17.1 18.5 19.9 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 16.6 17.7 15.8 -0.9 38.7 43.7 17.2 18.7 20.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 17.0 18.2 18.5 -0.7 40.5 44.3 17.5 19.0 20.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 11.5 12.6 13.4 -0.9 37.9 43.5 12.2 13.7 15.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 17.2 18.3 18.2 -0.8 39.8 44.2 17.7 19.2 20.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 17.3 18.6 18.3 -0.6 41.7 45.0 17.8 19.4 20.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 17.4 18.5 18.4 -0.8 39.8 44.0 17.9 19.5 20.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 16.9 18.1 17.3 -0.8 39.1 43.9 17.5 19.0 20.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 17.2 18.5 17.2 -0.6 41.1 44.6 17.8 19.2 20.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 16.5 17.7 15.5 -0.8 39.4 43.4 17.1 18.5 19.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 17.1 18.3 17.9 -0.6 41.4 44.8 17.6 19.0 20.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 17.2 18.5 17.1 -0.6 41.7 44.9 17.8 19.1 20.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 11.5 12.7 14.7 -0.9 38.5 43.6 12.1 13.7 15.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 17.1 18.2 18.6 -0.7 40.9 44.5 17.5 19.0 20.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------