***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.03.2015.-26.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 17.7 16.7 15.7 -0.6 38.3 40.6 16.4 17.3 18.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 16.2 16.7 15.6 -0.6 37.7 39.8 16.4 17.3 18.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 17.9 16.9 15.9 -0.5 39.4 41.5 16.5 17.5 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 10.5 9.6 14.1 -0.3 43.1 44.4 9.0 10.1 11.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 18.2 17.3 14.5 -0.4 42.4 43.8 16.7 17.8 18.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 16.9 16.1 12.7 -0.3 44.4 45.3 15.4 16.5 17.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 16.1 16.5 15.5 -0.6 37.3 39.4 16.3 17.1 17.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 5.8 4.8 12.9 -0.5 41.2 42.9 4.3 5.3 6.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 17.7 16.9 15.0 -0.4 42.1 43.6 16.3 17.3 18.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 17.8 16.9 13.8 -0.5 41.2 42.9 16.4 17.4 18.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 18.0 17.1 14.2 -0.3 43.4 44.6 16.5 17.5 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 17.1 16.2 13.8 -0.4 42.7 44.0 15.5 16.6 17.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 18.0 17.1 13.4 -0.4 42.2 43.5 16.5 17.6 18.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 16.3 16.9 15.0 -0.5 41.5 43.0 16.4 17.4 18.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 17.7 17.1 14.7 -0.3 44.3 45.3 16.5 17.4 18.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 18.3 17.5 13.9 -0.4 43.1 44.3 16.8 17.9 19.0 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 15.6 16.0 15.3 -0.6 37.3 39.3 15.8 16.6 17.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 17.4 16.3 13.0 -0.6 38.9 41.2 15.9 16.9 17.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 16.0 16.5 15.8 -0.6 38.5 40.6 16.2 17.2 18.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 10.5 10.8 10.6 -0.9 35.1 38.3 10.7 11.8 12.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 17.9 17.0 15.6 -0.5 41.0 42.8 16.5 17.5 18.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 16.2 16.7 15.6 -0.6 38.5 40.3 16.4 17.3 18.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 16.3 16.9 15.8 -0.5 39.8 41.7 16.5 17.5 18.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 17.7 16.7 14.7 -0.5 40.5 42.4 16.3 17.2 18.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 17.8 16.8 14.4 -0.5 39.0 41.2 16.5 17.4 18.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 17.2 16.4 12.9 -0.4 42.2 43.6 15.8 16.8 17.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 17.8 16.7 15.0 -0.6 37.4 39.8 16.4 17.4 18.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 17.9 17.2 14.5 -0.3 44.8 45.7 16.5 17.5 18.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 10.5 11.0 12.0 -0.7 37.5 40.1 10.7 11.7 12.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 16.1 16.5 15.7 -0.6 37.9 40.1 16.3 17.2 18.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------