***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.04.2015.-12.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 15.8 17.6 17.4 136.1 74.4 63.8 5.1 8.9 13.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 14.7 16.5 17.8 132.8 73.5 63.2 4.3 8.1 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 14.7 15.6 16.3 126.7 71.7 62.1 5.1 8.7 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 18.9 22.4 18.5 139.9 75.6 62.4 5.9 10.6 16.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 12.9 20.2 17.2 134.6 74.0 59.6 5.5 9.9 16.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 15.0 14.2 18.8 119.1 68.9 60.4 3.8 7.5 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 12.1 13.3 17.6 131.6 73.1 62.5 2.9 6.1 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 25.8 30.3 19.0 142.9 76.7 63.5 8.7 14.7 22.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 11.3 17.7 17.2 133.6 73.6 60.4 5.0 8.9 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 20.5 22.2 18.5 131.8 73.2 60.9 7.9 12.7 18.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 16.7 19.8 16.5 143.1 76.3 62.6 4.8 9.0 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 17.3 21.3 16.5 148.5 78.0 64.3 4.0 8.1 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 17.3 18.0 16.9 129.9 72.6 61.0 4.5 8.7 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 13.9 19.2 18.8 119.1 69.0 59.0 5.9 10.9 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 11.9 13.3 17.4 134.8 74.0 61.1 2.8 5.8 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 15.9 18.0 16.5 138.6 75.1 63.0 5.1 8.9 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 11.9 14.2 17.8 138.2 74.9 64.1 3.6 6.7 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 12.7 16.8 20.1 123.1 70.2 60.2 6.9 10.6 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 18.3 20.5 17.7 132.2 73.3 63.2 5.8 10.4 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 17.6 20.6 24.8 143.0 76.9 66.2 5.5 9.6 15.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 13.5 15.9 16.6 137.9 74.8 62.4 4.4 7.8 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 16.0 18.2 18.4 141.0 75.7 65.7 4.8 8.6 13.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 43 57 100 15.5 17.5 17.7 131.2 73.0 63.1 5.2 9.1 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 11.7 15.6 18.0 119.4 69.2 59.2 5.9 9.6 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 15.5 17.3 19.7 132.6 73.5 60.8 5.6 9.4 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 16.6 19.2 17.6 144.5 77.1 64.7 4.4 8.3 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 16.8 18.5 19.2 131.5 73.0 62.0 4.7 9.0 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 15.9 17.5 16.8 133.7 73.7 60.9 4.7 8.5 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 22.4 24.4 22.3 130.3 72.6 62.9 9.3 14.4 20.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 12.9 13.8 17.4 129.3 72.5 62.6 3.7 6.9 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------