***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.04.2015.-19.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 12.9 18.8 15.0 123.2 71.1 58.9 6.1 10.5 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 9.8 12.5 13.5 111.6 67.1 55.5 5.2 8.4 12.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 15.9 21.0 14.0 116.0 68.7 58.3 9.1 13.9 19.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 21.5 24.6 16.2 104.6 64.2 52.8 12.6 18.4 25.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 17.2 20.7 16.0 106.4 65.0 54.2 8.4 14.0 21.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 15.1 19.1 21.3 114.8 67.6 58.4 8.0 12.5 18.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 11.0 14.6 13.6 112.6 67.3 54.9 4.5 8.6 14.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 27.2 32.6 17.9 112.4 66.8 57.6 15.8 23.2 32.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 15.6 20.0 16.2 112.1 67.1 56.7 6.8 12.2 19.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 18.2 22.8 18.5 114.5 67.6 57.7 9.8 15.3 21.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 16.9 21.0 15.3 108.0 65.6 55.1 7.5 13.3 21.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 15.9 19.3 14.9 110.6 66.5 56.7 8.5 13.3 19.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 18.0 22.8 17.6 113.0 67.2 57.4 10.0 15.5 22.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 19.0 23.6 17.8 118.3 69.1 58.3 11.4 16.3 22.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 15.5 18.4 15.0 106.2 65.5 53.6 7.3 12.2 18.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 16.6 21.1 16.1 108.6 65.6 55.2 7.3 13.3 21.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 10.0 12.8 13.3 111.4 67.1 55.0 4.6 7.9 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 21.3 21.7 21.4 123.7 70.6 59.9 9.0 13.7 19.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 10.5 13.5 13.4 110.9 67.0 56.6 5.6 9.0 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 18.7 17.8 22.9 117.3 68.2 58.7 7.6 11.9 17.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 16.2 21.5 15.0 119.2 69.8 58.5 8.4 13.4 19.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 10.5 13.5 13.1 107.2 66.2 56.2 4.8 8.4 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 11.9 15.6 14.0 113.2 67.9 57.9 6.6 10.3 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 18.4 24.4 18.0 121.6 70.2 59.5 10.0 15.4 22.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 16.0 22.4 18.0 116.6 68.7 57.0 7.6 13.3 20.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 13.9 16.6 15.7 107.3 64.9 56.5 7.1 11.5 17.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 14.6 21.3 17.2 119.8 69.9 58.1 6.9 12.1 19.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 14.8 17.0 15.2 102.3 63.6 52.3 7.2 12.0 18.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 29.3 29.9 22.5 125.4 71.1 60.1 14.0 20.0 27.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 10.1 13.5 13.7 113.5 67.7 56.0 5.1 8.5 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------