***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.04.2015.-26.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 6.4 20.4 11.2 133.5 73.7 52.2 6.5 10.9 16.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 3.9 12.3 10.2 110.9 66.9 48.0 3.7 7.1 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 4.8 19.4 11.4 133.2 73.6 53.4 4.8 9.2 15.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 7.8 21.8 15.6 138.9 75.1 56.4 8.0 12.3 17.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 4.9 18.3 15.3 144.5 76.3 56.4 4.5 8.2 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 10.9 13.9 18.2 113.2 67.3 54.0 5.1 8.7 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 4.0 11.6 10.4 107.0 65.4 47.1 4.2 7.5 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 19.0 25.1 16.5 123.2 70.6 52.9 9.4 15.2 22.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 4.6 17.2 14.9 144.5 76.3 55.5 4.2 7.7 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 13.2 18.8 16.3 128.1 71.9 53.9 5.7 10.1 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 5.0 16.4 14.4 137.3 74.5 53.9 4.9 8.4 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 4.6 16.7 14.4 130.0 72.7 52.9 4.4 8.2 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 12.1 16.2 15.9 119.0 69.3 53.5 5.5 9.5 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 5.2 16.4 13.2 116.8 68.6 52.8 4.8 9.1 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 4.1 15.4 14.8 131.3 73.2 53.6 4.2 7.7 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 4.9 16.8 15.3 132.3 73.2 54.7 4.5 8.2 13.5 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 4.4 13.1 10.1 102.4 63.8 45.2 4.7 8.6 13.9 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 7.4 20.6 17.1 119.4 69.6 53.9 7.1 12.1 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 4.2 14.9 10.1 114.7 68.1 49.2 3.9 8.1 13.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 6.1 16.4 19.3 120.4 69.6 54.6 5.7 9.7 15.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 5.0 14.4 12.8 142.7 76.0 55.0 4.8 7.7 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 3.9 11.3 9.8 102.0 63.2 44.8 4.4 7.7 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 4.0 13.0 10.3 119.2 69.5 51.5 3.9 7.2 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 5.0 18.1 14.3 122.7 70.5 53.3 4.6 9.2 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 5.4 17.2 14.5 129.9 72.8 54.3 5.1 9.0 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.8 14.1 14.3 123.2 70.6 54.0 3.6 7.1 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 5.3 17.7 13.0 124.0 71.1 51.9 5.0 9.2 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 4.2 15.4 15.6 134.9 74.1 55.4 4.0 7.4 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 9.3 22.8 16.9 115.4 68.2 53.2 8.9 14.5 21.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 4.5 14.4 10.5 118.8 69.3 49.9 4.6 8.2 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------