***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.03.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.03.2015.-26.04.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 59.3 64.3 59.8 126.9 73.2 64.5 33.3 44.5 57.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 43.0 51.1 55.2 116.7 68.2 60.3 27.6 37.6 49.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 53.6 65.9 57.2 119.7 69.8 62.7 36.8 48.8 62.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 68.7 78.2 66.5 117.6 68.7 60.4 52.6 63.8 75.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 68.1 67.2 64.3 116.9 68.4 60.1 35.7 49.1 64.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 51.8 54.6 72.5 107.8 62.5 56.6 36.8 46.5 57.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 41.5 49.5 55.5 116.2 67.9 59.4 25.1 35.6 47.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 95.3 94.8 69.2 115.4 68.3 60.9 67.6 79.8 92.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 60.4 63.3 66.1 122.7 72.0 63.2 33.9 45.2 57.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 72.1 72.2 71.3 117.1 69.2 61.7 43.2 55.6 69.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 64.7 63.8 60.8 117.0 68.6 61.0 37.2 48.6 61.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 62.8 62.2 59.3 116.2 68.2 60.5 39.6 49.8 60.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 40.4 62.3 62.8 108.0 62.6 56.1 40.8 52.4 65.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 60.5 70.1 67.9 116.0 68.1 61.0 43.5 55.2 68.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 52.4 56.4 58.3 108.0 62.8 55.1 33.0 45.5 59.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 54.2 61.4 61.8 113.6 66.4 59.1 37.5 48.8 61.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 41.8 50.0 54.8 117.9 68.9 60.2 27.4 36.8 47.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 56.1 64.9 78.6 116.6 69.1 61.9 40.4 51.0 62.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 46.4 57.0 55.4 117.2 68.4 61.2 28.0 40.3 54.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 62.8 62.6 85.4 116.9 69.9 62.8 38.3 48.4 59.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 56.6 61.1 61.6 127.0 73.4 65.4 31.6 42.2 54.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 41.8 52.5 55.6 118.2 69.1 61.9 26.4 37.0 49.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 54.2 55.3 57.6 119.2 69.5 62.8 28.9 39.7 52.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 57.1 67.6 68.8 117.0 68.8 61.9 40.1 51.9 65.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 64.3 66.9 70.7 122.4 71.4 62.8 38.5 49.6 62.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 35.6 54.0 58.9 108.1 62.6 56.0 36.5 46.0 56.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 52.6 68.5 67.9 124.0 72.1 63.3 33.4 46.5 61.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 53.1 57.7 60.6 110.0 64.0 56.5 38.7 48.5 59.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 89.0 90.4 82.0 118.2 70.5 63.0 57.0 70.9 85.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 42.3 49.9 55.8 117.3 68.5 60.4 27.9 37.3 47.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------