***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.03.2020.-05.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 76 24 0 100 3.3 2.8 3.3 -2.0 16.3 25.0 4.0 4.9 5.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 81 19 0 100 3.4 2.5 2.7 -2.4 10.2 19.0 4.1 5.0 5.8 30 Becej 27400G00 78 22 0 100 5.5 4.7 3.3 -2.2 13.0 21.9 6.3 7.3 8.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 -0.4 -0.5 1.1 -1.5 24.2 30.6 0.2 1.3 2.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 72 28 0 100 1.8 1.6 2.1 -1.7 21.5 29.3 2.5 3.6 4.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 1.2 1.6 0.3 -0.9 33.9 39.7 1.6 2.6 3.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 81 19 0 100 3.4 2.6 2.7 -2.4 10.9 19.6 4.1 5.0 5.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 -4.0 -4.0 -0.1 -1.4 25.0 32.5 -3.4 -2.3 -1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 71 29 0 100 3.1 2.9 2.2 -1.5 21.6 29.9 3.7 4.6 5.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 3.1 2.9 0.6 -1.6 21.7 29.8 3.7 4.7 5.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 2.7 2.7 2.0 -1.4 24.6 32.0 3.2 4.3 5.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 1.2 1.1 1.0 -1.4 24.5 32.4 1.8 2.9 3.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 2.2 2.3 1.3 -1.1 29.4 36.4 2.6 3.7 4.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 80 20 0 100 3.6 2.9 1.3 -2.2 13.0 22.5 4.3 5.3 6.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 3.3 3.7 3.3 -0.8 34.6 39.5 3.6 4.7 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 3.4 3.6 1.6 -1.2 27.8 34.5 3.9 5.0 6.0 30 Nis 06700G01 85 15 0 100 3.5 2.4 2.2 -2.7 7.7 16.1 4.3 5.1 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 75 25 0 100 0.7 0.6 -0.1 -1.7 20.2 27.6 1.3 2.2 3.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 81 19 0 100 3.1 2.1 2.7 -2.4 10.2 19.5 3.9 4.8 5.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 -1.8 -1.5 -1.5 -1.3 29.2 35.3 -1.3 -0.2 0.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 75 25 0 100 2.7 2.3 3.1 -1.8 18.0 26.3 3.4 4.5 5.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 84 16 0 100 2.6 1.3 2.4 -2.7 6.6 15.4 3.4 4.2 5.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 79 21 0 100 2.7 1.8 2.8 -2.2 10.8 21.0 3.4 4.3 5.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 78 22 0 100 2.7 2.1 1.7 -2.0 15.5 24.0 3.5 4.5 5.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 3.2 2.8 2.8 -1.9 19.0 27.8 3.8 4.8 5.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 2.2 2.6 0.7 -0.9 32.7 38.9 2.6 3.7 4.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 71 29 0 100 3.5 2.9 3.0 -2.0 17.7 26.5 4.2 5.5 6.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 1.2 1.3 2.0 -1.2 28.9 34.6 1.6 2.7 3.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 70 30 0 100 0.2 0.2 -0.8 -1.5 23.7 30.8 0.9 2.0 3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 79 21 0 100 3.6 2.7 3.0 -2.3 11.7 20.5 4.3 5.3 6.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------