***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.04.2020.-12.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 4.4 5.3 5.3 -0.7 41.0 43.3 4.8 5.9 7.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 4.1 4.9 5.1 -0.6 41.7 44.0 4.4 5.5 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 6.2 7.2 5.4 -0.6 41.5 43.8 6.6 7.8 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 0.0 1.1 2.6 -0.6 41.1 43.8 0.4 1.9 3.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 3.3 3.9 3.2 -0.8 39.0 42.2 3.5 4.6 5.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 4.1 2.9 0.8 -0.9 37.9 42.0 2.6 3.7 4.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 4.4 5.3 5.0 -0.6 41.6 43.9 4.7 5.8 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 -3.2 -2.6 0.8 -0.9 37.4 41.8 -3.0 -1.6 -0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 4.0 4.7 3.3 -0.8 37.7 41.1 4.4 5.4 6.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 4.2 4.7 1.6 -0.9 37.3 41.4 4.5 5.5 6.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 4.0 4.5 2.6 -0.9 37.3 41.2 4.3 5.3 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 2.5 3.1 1.7 -0.9 37.3 41.3 2.8 3.9 5.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 3.6 3.8 1.3 -1.1 34.0 38.6 3.8 4.9 5.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 4.8 5.4 3.2 -0.8 39.0 42.4 5.1 6.1 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 5.0 5.6 3.9 -0.7 39.4 42.5 5.3 6.2 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 6.5 5.1 2.0 -0.9 36.9 40.8 4.8 6.0 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 4.6 5.3 4.9 -0.6 42.3 44.5 4.8 5.8 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 2.3 2.9 1.2 -0.7 40.1 43.6 2.5 3.4 4.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 4.3 5.0 5.1 -0.6 41.5 43.9 4.5 5.6 6.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 -0.5 0.2 -0.6 -0.8 39.5 43.6 -0.3 0.8 1.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 3.9 4.8 4.6 -0.7 39.4 42.4 4.3 5.5 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 4.2 4.8 4.9 -0.5 42.8 44.9 4.3 5.2 6.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 4.0 4.7 4.9 -0.6 41.0 43.5 4.2 5.2 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 4.3 4.9 3.2 -0.6 40.6 43.6 4.5 5.4 6.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 3.8 4.9 4.3 -0.8 40.0 42.7 4.4 5.6 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 3.2 3.7 0.8 -1.2 33.3 38.4 3.6 4.7 5.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 4.1 5.3 4.9 -0.7 40.7 43.1 4.7 6.1 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 2.9 3.6 3.0 -0.7 40.3 43.2 3.1 4.2 5.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 3.1 1.7 0.4 -0.8 38.4 42.8 1.3 2.5 3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 4.5 5.4 5.3 -0.6 41.9 44.1 4.8 5.9 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------