***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.04.2020.-12.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 17.1 17.3 15.8 0.8 58.1 56.2 15.1 16.6 18.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 17.3 17.3 15.7 0.6 56.6 54.9 15.2 16.7 18.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 17.7 17.7 16.0 0.7 56.7 55.2 15.6 17.1 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 10.8 10.7 12.8 0.5 55.2 54.0 8.1 10.1 12.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 18.3 18.0 14.0 0.3 53.1 52.4 15.9 17.7 19.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 17.4 16.7 11.9 0.0 49.7 49.9 14.8 16.7 18.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 17.2 17.1 15.5 0.5 55.7 54.2 15.2 16.6 18.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 5.9 5.4 12.3 0.2 51.4 51.2 3.6 5.3 6.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 17.9 17.7 14.8 0.4 53.8 53.0 15.6 17.3 18.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 18.0 17.7 13.3 0.3 52.7 52.2 15.7 17.4 19.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 18.2 17.7 14.1 0.1 51.3 51.1 15.8 17.6 19.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 17.4 16.8 13.2 0.1 50.7 50.6 14.9 16.7 18.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 18.4 17.6 13.2 -0.1 49.0 49.3 15.8 17.7 19.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 17.6 17.6 14.9 0.7 56.3 54.8 15.4 17.0 18.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 18.1 18.2 14.7 0.7 56.9 55.4 16.0 17.6 19.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 18.7 18.1 13.5 0.1 50.8 50.7 16.1 18.0 19.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 16.5 16.4 15.3 0.5 55.5 53.9 14.6 16.0 17.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 17.4 17.1 12.8 0.4 53.5 52.7 15.0 16.8 18.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 17.2 17.3 15.8 0.7 56.8 55.1 15.1 16.7 18.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 12.4 12.1 10.5 0.4 53.4 52.5 10.0 11.7 13.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 17.8 17.8 15.6 0.5 55.3 54.1 15.7 17.3 18.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 17.2 17.2 15.5 0.7 57.0 55.0 15.2 16.6 18.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 17.5 17.5 16.0 0.7 56.7 55.2 15.4 17.0 18.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 17.4 17.3 14.7 0.5 54.9 53.8 15.3 16.9 18.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 17.7 17.7 14.4 0.6 56.1 54.7 15.7 17.2 18.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 17.6 16.9 12.2 -0.1 49.4 49.7 15.2 17.0 18.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 17.6 17.7 15.2 0.7 57.0 55.4 15.6 17.1 18.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 18.5 18.4 13.6 0.5 55.0 53.9 16.1 17.9 19.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 12.3 12.0 12.0 0.4 53.2 52.4 10.0 11.7 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 17.2 17.3 15.8 0.7 57.1 55.3 15.2 16.7 18.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------