***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.04.2020.-26.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 19.7 20.2 18.3 1.0 62.2 59.6 17.8 19.2 20.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 19.8 20.2 17.9 0.9 61.3 58.4 17.8 19.3 20.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 19.8 20.3 18.4 0.9 60.8 58.1 17.8 19.3 20.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 12.4 12.7 15.8 0.8 59.4 57.9 10.4 11.9 13.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 20.0 20.2 16.4 0.7 57.7 56.4 18.0 19.5 20.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 18.5 18.4 14.2 0.6 56.3 55.4 16.6 17.9 19.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 19.4 19.8 17.9 0.9 61.1 58.4 17.4 18.8 20.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 7.7 7.6 14.7 0.5 55.2 54.4 5.7 7.2 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 19.5 19.7 16.7 0.7 58.3 56.5 17.4 18.9 20.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 19.6 19.6 15.5 0.6 56.8 55.4 17.6 19.1 20.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 19.7 19.7 16.2 0.6 56.3 55.3 17.7 19.2 20.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 18.9 18.8 15.7 0.5 55.4 54.6 16.8 18.3 19.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 19.8 19.7 14.9 0.5 55.3 54.7 17.7 19.2 20.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 20.0 20.1 16.5 0.6 57.1 55.0 17.9 19.4 20.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 19.4 19.9 16.8 0.9 62.0 59.8 17.6 18.9 20.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 20.2 20.2 15.7 0.6 56.4 55.6 18.2 19.7 21.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 19.1 19.4 17.7 0.9 60.7 57.7 17.1 18.5 19.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 19.3 19.3 15.1 0.6 56.5 55.1 17.2 18.7 20.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 19.6 20.0 18.1 0.9 60.7 57.9 17.5 19.0 20.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 14.3 14.2 12.3 0.5 55.1 54.4 12.2 13.7 15.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 19.7 20.0 17.6 0.8 59.3 57.2 17.7 19.2 20.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 20.0 20.4 17.7 0.9 60.9 57.7 17.8 19.4 20.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 20.1 20.3 18.1 0.8 59.4 56.8 17.9 19.5 20.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 19.5 19.7 16.6 0.7 57.9 55.8 17.5 19.0 20.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 19.7 20.1 16.5 0.9 60.7 58.6 17.8 19.2 20.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 19.0 19.0 14.8 0.5 55.5 54.7 17.1 18.5 19.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 19.5 20.0 17.5 1.0 62.1 59.6 17.6 19.0 20.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 19.6 19.9 16.1 0.8 59.7 58.1 17.8 19.1 20.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 14.3 14.2 14.1 0.5 55.4 54.4 12.1 13.7 15.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 19.6 20.1 18.1 1.0 61.8 59.0 17.5 19.0 20.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------