***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.03.2020.-26.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 16.2 17.0 15.6 -0.3 44.8 45.9 16.4 17.3 18.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 16.3 16.9 15.3 -0.4 42.2 43.9 16.4 17.3 18.2 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 16.3 17.1 15.6 -0.5 42.0 43.7 16.5 17.5 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 8.8 9.6 12.8 -0.4 42.7 44.1 9.0 10.1 11.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 16.5 17.1 13.7 -0.7 38.9 41.2 16.7 17.8 18.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 15.2 15.8 11.8 -0.6 39.9 42.0 15.4 16.5 17.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 16.1 16.7 15.2 -0.4 41.7 43.5 16.3 17.1 17.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 3.9 4.5 12.0 -0.8 36.8 39.6 4.3 5.3 6.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 16.1 16.7 14.3 -0.6 39.3 41.5 16.3 17.3 18.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 16.1 16.7 12.9 -0.8 38.2 40.6 16.4 17.4 18.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 16.1 16.7 13.7 -0.8 37.1 39.7 16.5 17.5 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 15.1 15.8 13.0 -0.8 36.5 39.3 15.5 16.6 17.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 16.1 16.7 12.8 -0.9 36.2 39.2 16.5 17.6 18.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 16.2 16.8 14.1 -0.7 38.4 41.1 16.4 17.4 18.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 17.8 17.2 14.4 -0.2 46.6 47.2 16.5 17.4 18.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 16.5 17.2 13.2 -0.7 38.1 40.5 16.8 17.9 19.0 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 15.6 16.2 14.9 -0.5 40.8 42.6 15.8 16.6 17.4 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 15.7 16.3 12.3 -0.8 38.5 41.0 15.9 16.9 17.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 16.1 16.7 15.4 -0.5 41.7 43.5 16.2 17.2 18.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 10.4 11.1 9.9 -0.7 39.6 42.1 10.7 11.8 12.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 16.3 17.0 15.1 -0.6 40.5 42.5 16.5 17.5 18.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 16.2 16.8 15.0 -0.5 41.2 42.9 16.4 17.3 18.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 16.3 17.0 15.5 -0.5 40.6 42.7 16.5 17.5 18.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 16.1 16.6 14.1 -0.7 38.8 41.3 16.3 17.2 18.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 16.3 17.0 14.1 -0.4 42.9 44.4 16.5 17.4 18.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 15.5 16.0 12.1 -0.8 36.6 39.5 15.8 16.8 17.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 16.2 17.1 14.9 -0.3 44.2 45.5 16.4 17.4 18.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 17.9 17.2 13.5 -0.3 43.9 45.0 16.5 17.5 18.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 10.4 11.0 11.5 -0.8 37.9 40.6 10.7 11.7 12.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 17.6 16.8 15.4 -0.4 43.1 44.7 16.3 17.2 18.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------