***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.04.2020.-19.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 13.4 14.2 14.8 94.5 60.8 48.9 6.1 10.5 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 5.4 10.1 12.1 87.6 57.6 46.5 5.2 8.4 12.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 16.8 17.9 14.7 96.8 61.4 49.8 9.1 13.9 19.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 21.7 23.6 17.1 99.1 62.1 51.8 12.6 18.4 25.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 17.4 19.7 16.6 102.7 63.0 53.2 8.4 14.0 21.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 15.2 18.3 18.7 110.4 65.9 56.3 8.0 12.5 18.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 4.8 10.2 11.5 84.4 55.6 44.9 4.5 8.6 14.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 27.4 30.7 17.7 105.5 63.8 54.9 15.8 23.2 32.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 15.6 18.0 17.1 103.8 63.5 54.0 6.8 12.2 19.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 18.4 20.9 18.7 105.3 63.8 54.8 9.8 15.3 21.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 8.1 19.5 15.6 103.0 63.2 53.3 7.5 13.3 21.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 8.8 18.4 15.7 106.7 64.5 54.6 8.5 13.3 19.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 18.9 22.7 18.4 112.9 66.8 55.7 10.0 15.5 22.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 18.9 21.3 19.8 104.1 63.8 52.4 11.4 16.3 22.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 15.5 16.1 15.0 91.5 60.1 48.0 7.3 12.2 18.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 17.7 20.8 16.8 107.8 65.1 54.4 7.3 13.3 21.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 10.2 9.5 11.1 84.1 56.3 46.1 4.6 7.9 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 16.3 19.4 20.4 110.2 65.6 55.5 9.0 13.7 19.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 11.2 11.1 12.8 90.9 58.9 47.8 5.6 9.0 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 14.1 17.3 22.3 114.0 66.9 56.4 7.6 11.9 17.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 16.1 18.1 16.1 99.6 62.4 51.8 8.4 13.4 19.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 11.1 10.7 12.1 89.3 58.1 48.2 4.8 8.4 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 12.4 13.3 14.2 96.5 61.2 49.4 6.6 10.3 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 18.5 21.2 18.3 105.6 64.3 53.6 10.0 15.4 22.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 16.8 17.8 16.9 94.9 60.6 49.4 7.6 13.3 20.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 14.3 17.1 17.4 109.7 66.0 56.5 7.1 11.5 17.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 15.5 16.4 15.5 94.0 60.5 48.9 6.9 12.1 19.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 14.9 16.6 16.5 99.8 62.7 52.2 7.2 12.0 18.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 22.9 27.3 21.1 112.0 66.3 56.4 14.0 20.0 27.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 5.3 10.7 12.9 89.5 58.5 46.9 5.1 8.5 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------