***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.04.2020.-26.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 6.8 16.0 15.2 106.6 64.7 52.4 6.5 10.9 16.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 4.2 12.2 13.9 110.6 66.3 52.8 3.7 7.1 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 12.5 16.4 16.2 115.8 68.0 54.9 4.8 9.2 15.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 14.8 20.0 19.4 125.6 71.2 58.3 8.0 12.3 17.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 15.2 15.4 18.8 124.0 70.8 57.7 4.5 8.2 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 10.7 14.0 20.2 115.3 67.6 58.0 5.1 8.7 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 9.8 11.8 13.2 109.1 65.7 52.8 4.2 7.5 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 24.4 24.0 19.5 118.4 68.7 58.9 9.4 15.2 22.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 4.6 14.1 19.2 121.9 70.0 57.3 4.2 7.7 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 17.8 17.1 20.5 117.9 68.6 57.8 5.7 10.1 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 10.6 14.3 17.3 120.5 69.5 58.0 4.9 8.4 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 10.8 14.8 17.3 119.0 69.0 58.1 4.4 8.2 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 12.0 16.0 19.6 117.7 68.5 58.1 5.5 9.5 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.2 16.0 21.7 116.2 68.0 54.8 4.8 9.1 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 10.1 13.3 16.4 115.4 68.2 55.2 4.2 7.7 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 10.7 15.7 19.1 125.4 71.1 59.4 4.5 8.2 13.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 11.4 13.2 12.6 103.2 64.1 49.9 4.7 8.6 13.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 15.5 19.7 21.7 116.4 68.0 56.6 7.1 12.1 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 4.6 14.5 14.9 113.0 67.2 53.6 3.9 8.1 13.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 11.9 15.2 21.5 112.9 66.6 57.4 5.7 9.7 15.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 5.0 12.2 17.6 119.6 69.4 55.9 4.8 7.7 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 4.6 11.1 13.3 99.9 62.7 49.6 4.4 7.7 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 4.2 12.3 16.1 113.6 67.3 53.8 3.9 7.2 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 5.3 17.2 20.1 118.3 68.8 55.5 4.6 9.2 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 5.4 14.4 17.8 111.5 66.4 53.5 5.1 9.0 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 9.5 12.2 17.4 109.9 66.1 56.5 3.6 7.1 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 5.3 14.2 16.0 105.1 63.9 51.5 5.0 9.2 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 9.7 14.5 19.3 128.5 72.2 59.3 4.0 7.4 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 18.0 22.6 21.7 115.9 67.7 56.9 8.9 14.5 21.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 10.8 12.8 14.0 108.5 65.3 52.8 4.6 8.2 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------