***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.03.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.03.2020.-26.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 32.0 47.6 54.1 97.6 54.2 49.0 33.3 44.5 57.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 26.3 39.7 47.5 96.0 53.2 47.7 27.6 37.6 49.2 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 36.3 54.8 55.6 102.0 57.9 51.3 36.8 48.8 62.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 79.1 73.7 67.9 109.2 63.5 56.5 52.6 63.8 75.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 35.1 61.5 63.7 108.7 63.2 55.6 35.7 49.1 64.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 59.8 56.0 70.0 110.3 64.4 58.4 36.8 46.5 57.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 23.8 36.0 45.5 93.6 51.0 46.5 25.1 35.6 47.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 85.9 90.2 69.3 108.5 63.2 56.7 67.6 79.8 92.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 33.9 54.5 64.0 107.5 62.3 54.8 33.9 45.2 57.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 62.1 65.8 70.8 107.6 62.5 55.5 43.2 55.6 69.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 54.8 58.7 62.4 108.4 62.9 55.8 37.2 48.6 61.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 54.9 58.2 61.8 108.4 63.0 56.1 39.6 49.8 60.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 58.7 62.9 68.2 109.1 63.5 56.7 40.8 52.4 65.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 41.4 64.5 75.2 106.9 61.9 54.9 43.5 55.2 68.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 52.4 54.7 61.4 105.5 61.0 55.0 33.0 45.5 59.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 54.7 60.3 65.7 111.5 65.1 57.8 37.5 48.8 61.2 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 26.1 36.5 43.6 90.9 49.5 45.3 27.4 36.8 47.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 56.4 60.7 75.5 109.4 64.0 56.6 40.4 51.0 62.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 27.7 44.7 50.4 98.6 55.4 49.4 28.0 40.3 54.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 53.4 58.9 80.5 111.2 65.5 58.0 38.3 48.4 59.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 31.4 49.8 59.9 105.3 60.6 53.4 31.6 42.2 54.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 25.8 37.5 46.5 92.5 50.6 46.8 26.4 37.0 49.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 28.7 45.5 55.2 101.5 57.9 51.5 28.9 39.7 52.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 39.9 62.2 69.4 108.4 63.0 55.8 40.1 51.9 65.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 37.4 54.8 63.1 101.3 57.2 51.6 38.5 49.6 62.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 50.7 53.7 65.4 107.6 62.4 56.1 36.5 46.0 56.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 31.8 49.6 57.1 97.1 53.6 49.1 33.4 46.5 61.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 53.7 57.9 66.3 110.4 64.4 57.8 38.7 48.5 59.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 77.9 85.0 78.1 111.1 65.4 58.0 57.0 70.9 85.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 26.9 39.3 49.1 96.4 53.3 47.5 27.9 37.3 47.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------