***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.03.2014.-06.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 9999.0 7.6 6.4 1.7 81.2 76.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 6.3 7.0 6.4 1.8 82.6 76.6 4.3 5.2 6.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 22 78 100 9.0 9.9 6.5 1.9 84.2 79.5 6.6 7.6 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 3.0 3.6 3.7 1.6 78.3 73.4 0.5 1.6 2.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 17 83 100 5.4 6.4 4.6 2.0 84.9 80.7 2.7 3.8 4.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 13 87 100 4.5 5.2 2.5 1.9 82.8 80.5 1.8 2.8 3.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 6.4 7.1 6.3 1.8 82.0 76.1 4.3 5.2 6.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 11 89 100 -0.3 0.2 2.7 1.8 82.1 80.3 -3.1 -2.0 -1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 17 83 100 6.3 7.1 5.0 1.9 84.4 81.2 3.9 4.9 5.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 12 88 100 6.5 7.2 3.5 1.9 83.6 81.1 4.0 5.0 5.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 14 86 100 6.0 6.7 4.0 1.8 83.1 80.4 3.6 4.5 5.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 14 86 100 4.8 5.4 3.2 1.7 81.2 79.1 2.1 3.2 4.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 10 90 100 5.5 6.3 3.2 1.9 85.1 82.6 2.8 3.9 4.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 14 86 100 6.9 7.9 5.3 2.1 87.3 83.2 4.6 5.5 6.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 6.2 6.5 4.5 1.2 73.4 69.6 4.0 5.0 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 12 88 100 6.9 7.7 3.8 2.0 84.9 82.1 4.2 5.3 6.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 24 76 100 6.4 7.1 6.1 1.8 82.6 76.1 4.5 5.3 6.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 12 88 100 3.7 4.3 2.9 2.0 84.2 81.7 1.6 2.4 3.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 6.4 7.2 6.5 1.9 84.1 78.5 4.1 5.1 6.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 8 92 100 1.6 2.3 1.0 2.0 84.3 82.7 -0.9 0.1 1.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 17 83 100 6.3 7.2 6.1 1.9 84.5 80.6 3.7 4.8 5.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 18 82 100 5.7 6.6 6.5 2.0 86.2 80.4 3.6 4.5 5.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 19 81 100 5.8 6.8 6.3 2.0 86.5 81.5 3.8 4.6 5.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 13 87 100 6.3 7.3 5.0 2.0 86.2 82.7 3.9 4.8 5.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 26 74 100 6.3 6.9 5.2 1.7 80.4 75.6 4.0 5.0 5.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 9 91 100 5.6 6.8 3.5 2.3 88.4 84.9 2.9 4.0 4.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 7.4 8.3 5.7 1.7 80.6 75.7 4.4 5.7 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 4.4 5.0 4.2 1.6 78.7 74.0 1.9 3.0 4.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 11 89 100 3.9 4.5 2.4 2.0 83.4 81.4 1.2 2.3 3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 6.8 7.6 6.5 1.8 82.7 77.2 4.5 5.5 6.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------