***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.03.2014.-27.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 9999.0 7.2 7.2 0.6 65.0 62.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 6.7 6.5 7.1 0.6 64.7 62.4 5.2 5.9 6.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 8.8 8.8 7.0 0.7 67.7 64.8 7.3 8.0 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 3.2 3.2 4.8 0.6 67.2 64.0 1.5 2.3 3.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 5.8 5.9 5.1 0.8 72.7 68.5 4.1 4.8 5.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 4.7 4.8 3.3 0.8 71.3 66.8 3.2 3.9 4.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 6.8 6.7 7.1 0.6 64.7 62.3 5.4 6.1 6.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 -0.5 -0.5 3.4 0.7 70.6 66.8 -2.3 -1.5 -0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 6.4 6.5 5.6 0.8 72.0 67.8 5.0 5.6 6.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 6.4 6.5 4.1 0.8 72.1 68.0 5.0 5.7 6.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 6.2 6.4 4.7 0.8 74.3 69.6 4.7 5.4 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 4.9 4.9 4.2 0.7 71.4 67.2 3.3 4.0 4.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 5.8 5.9 3.9 0.8 73.8 68.7 4.3 5.0 5.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 6.9 6.9 5.6 0.7 69.6 66.1 5.6 6.2 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 6.4 6.7 5.3 0.5 64.5 61.6 5.7 6.2 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 6.9 7.2 4.4 0.9 75.0 69.9 5.4 6.1 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 6.9 6.7 6.8 0.5 63.3 61.2 5.5 6.2 6.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 4.3 4.3 3.5 0.8 71.4 67.6 3.0 3.6 4.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 6.7 6.6 7.0 0.6 66.2 63.6 5.2 5.9 6.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 1.7 1.7 1.7 0.8 69.8 66.3 0.3 0.9 1.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 6.5 6.5 6.5 0.7 69.3 65.9 4.9 5.6 6.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 6.1 6.0 6.9 0.6 65.8 63.1 4.8 5.4 6.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 6.3 6.3 6.8 0.7 68.7 65.6 4.9 5.5 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 6.3 6.3 5.4 0.8 71.0 67.2 4.9 5.6 6.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 6.7 6.4 5.6 0.5 64.7 62.4 5.1 5.8 6.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 5.6 5.8 4.1 0.9 73.9 68.6 4.2 4.8 5.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 7.3 7.1 6.4 0.5 64.3 62.1 5.5 6.4 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 5.1 5.1 5.1 0.7 69.0 65.1 3.7 4.4 5.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 3.7 3.8 2.9 0.8 71.3 67.6 2.0 2.8 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 7.1 6.9 7.2 0.6 65.4 62.9 5.5 6.3 6.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------