***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.03.2014.-06.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 23 77 100 9999.0 19.8 17.0 2.3 82.5 76.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 22 78 100 19.0 20.0 17.0 2.4 83.0 77.7 16.1 17.3 18.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 17 83 100 19.5 20.6 17.4 2.6 84.3 78.7 16.1 17.5 18.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 11.5 12.5 14.4 2.2 79.1 73.4 7.9 9.5 11.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 19 81 100 19.9 21.3 16.0 2.8 84.7 79.2 16.1 17.6 19.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 19 81 100 18.5 19.9 14.0 2.9 84.2 79.6 14.6 16.2 17.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 18.7 19.5 16.7 2.2 81.7 76.4 15.9 17.1 18.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 15 85 100 7.0 8.4 14.7 3.2 86.4 82.1 3.5 4.9 6.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 17 83 100 19.5 21.0 17.1 3.0 86.4 80.9 15.8 17.3 18.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 15 85 100 19.5 21.0 15.7 3.1 86.0 81.4 15.7 17.3 18.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 16 84 100 19.6 21.2 16.1 3.0 86.2 81.1 15.7 17.3 18.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 14 86 100 18.7 20.3 15.4 3.1 86.8 82.2 14.7 16.3 17.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 15 85 100 19.5 21.0 15.4 3.0 85.7 81.2 15.6 17.2 18.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 14 86 100 19.5 20.7 17.1 3.1 85.0 80.9 16.0 17.4 18.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 18.5 19.0 15.3 1.7 74.5 68.6 15.4 16.8 18.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 17 83 100 20.0 21.5 15.6 2.9 85.3 80.5 16.0 17.6 19.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 17.8 18.6 16.6 2.3 81.6 76.7 15.4 16.4 17.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 18 82 100 19.0 20.3 15.1 3.1 84.8 81.0 15.5 16.9 18.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 18 82 100 19.0 20.1 17.3 2.6 84.3 79.1 15.9 17.1 18.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 17 83 100 13.4 14.6 12.7 3.0 84.5 81.3 10.0 11.4 12.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 18 82 100 19.6 20.8 17.4 2.7 84.4 78.6 16.0 17.5 18.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 23 77 100 18.8 19.8 16.9 2.5 83.4 78.7 16.0 17.2 18.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 16 84 100 19.4 20.7 17.6 2.8 85.6 80.6 16.1 17.4 18.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 16 84 100 19.4 20.7 16.8 3.0 84.9 80.5 15.9 17.3 18.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 19.0 19.8 15.5 2.0 78.8 73.3 15.9 17.2 18.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 19 81 100 18.6 20.0 14.3 2.8 85.1 80.8 14.8 16.4 17.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 19.2 20.0 16.2 2.0 79.6 74.4 16.1 17.4 18.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 19.1 20.1 15.1 2.2 79.6 73.8 15.3 17.0 18.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 15 85 100 13.7 14.9 14.3 3.1 84.4 81.0 10.1 11.5 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 21 79 100 18.9 19.9 17.1 2.4 83.3 77.8 16.0 17.2 18.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------