***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.03.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.04.2014.-27.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 9999.0 19.7 18.8 -0.2 47.6 47.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 17.4 19.2 18.5 -0.3 46.0 46.4 18.0 19.6 21.0 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 17.4 19.3 18.8 -0.3 47.1 47.4 18.0 19.6 21.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 10.2 11.7 17.0 -0.4 45.0 46.2 10.6 12.2 13.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 17.9 19.5 17.3 -0.3 46.2 47.2 18.3 19.9 21.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 18.9 18.0 15.6 -0.3 47.0 47.9 16.8 18.3 19.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 17.1 18.8 18.5 -0.3 45.9 46.5 17.6 19.1 20.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 5.7 7.1 15.8 -0.4 45.2 46.4 6.0 7.5 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 17.3 19.0 17.8 -0.3 46.7 47.5 17.8 19.3 20.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 17.5 19.0 16.5 -0.4 45.5 46.7 17.9 19.4 20.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 17.7 19.3 17.0 -0.3 47.1 47.9 18.0 19.6 21.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 16.8 18.4 16.7 -0.3 46.5 47.3 17.1 18.7 20.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 17.8 19.3 16.3 -0.3 47.0 47.8 18.0 19.6 21.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 17.5 19.2 17.2 -0.6 44.0 45.0 18.2 19.7 21.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 17.5 18.8 17.2 -0.4 45.0 46.3 17.8 19.2 20.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 18.2 19.8 16.7 -0.3 47.0 47.8 18.5 20.1 21.5 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 16.8 18.3 18.1 -0.5 43.5 44.6 17.4 18.8 20.2 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 16.9 18.5 15.8 -0.5 44.5 45.7 17.4 19.0 20.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 17.1 19.0 18.6 -0.3 46.2 46.5 17.8 19.3 20.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 12.0 13.5 13.5 -0.6 43.8 45.0 12.4 14.0 15.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 17.5 19.3 18.4 -0.3 46.8 47.4 18.0 19.6 21.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 17.4 19.0 18.0 -0.7 42.3 43.6 18.1 19.7 21.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 17.5 19.4 18.5 -0.3 46.1 46.5 18.2 19.7 21.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 17.1 18.9 17.3 -0.4 45.2 46.2 17.8 19.3 20.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 17.6 19.1 17.3 -0.4 45.4 46.3 18.0 19.5 20.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 17.1 18.6 16.0 -0.3 46.9 47.7 17.4 18.9 20.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 17.4 19.0 18.0 -0.3 46.2 46.8 17.8 19.3 20.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 17.7 19.1 17.2 -0.4 45.4 46.5 18.0 19.5 20.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 11.9 13.5 14.7 -0.5 44.5 45.5 12.4 14.0 15.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 17.1 19.0 18.7 -0.3 46.9 47.1 17.7 19.3 20.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------